Rivera's Cutter

Location Change!

2007-12-04T14:32:00.000-05:00

Rivera's Cutter has moved (and I don't just mean from one side of the plate to the other at 95 mph). I wanted more flexibility in editing html and css code, as well as a few other things and wordpress is much easier.

So the site is now at:

riverascutter.wordpress.com

update your bookmarks.

And he's back!

2007-12-03T17:25:00.000-05:00

Andy Pettitte has returned to the Yankees and I can honestly say, I always thought he would.

So where does that leave the Santana Sweepstakes? On one hand there is less pressure to acquire a veteran arm with Pettitte around. On the other hand, having a 1-2-3 of Santana, Wang, and Pettitte would be nasty (not to mention following with Joba, Moose, and Kennedy).

The Yankees have made their final offer: Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and a mid-level prospect (essentially not Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, Dellin Betances, Jose Tabata, or Alan Horne). This is at least comparable to the Red Sox package of Lester, Lowrie, Crisp, and Masterson and probably better simply because Crisp makes too much money for what he produces. The Red Sox have since put the Ellsbury into the deal instead of Lester and Crisp (while presumably adding another mid-level prospect as well). From a talent standpoint this is actually a worse package, as Ellsbury isn't as good as Lester. But according to Jack Curry of the NYTimes, the Twins might not agree. In fact, they rate Ellsbury higher than Hughes.

If this is true, it might not be worth it for the Yankees to even be at the negotiating table. If there is that big of a disparity in how the Twins and Yankees rate the Yankees' prospects, its hard to find an equitable deal.

Either way, it's good to have Andy back.

Misleading

2007-12-02T22:43:00.000-05:00

ESPN reports that A-Rod's deal may be up to $314 million, which is obviously higher than the previously reported $305 million. The headline is misleading however; while it is true that everyone likes to read about A-Rod being greedy and the Yankees overspending, the extra $9 million dollars is simply the deferred money A-Rod is owed by Texas.

Something about the contract that is interesting, however, is that it will be frontloaded. Apparently, A-Rod will make $32 million in the first 3 seasons. If the rest of the money is distributed equally, he'd make approximately $25.5 million the next 7 years. I'm glad to see the Yankees are finally done with the "we'll deal with it later" attitude of previous backloaded contracts. It makes sense for A-Rod to make the most money the next 3 seasons; those seasons will likely be his most productive. If the Yankees had thought like this in the past, Giambi wouldn't be set to make $22 million this year.

Is it worth it?

2007-12-01T12:04:00.000-05:00

Apparently the Yankees may be willing to include Phil Hughes in the deal of Johan Santana. I still think they should sit on their offer of Kennedy, Melky, and a prospect for now. If the Yankees do include Phil Hughes, it is imperative that they include few other prospects.

As it stands now, an optimist could envision a Yankee team in a couple years includes a rotation of Wang, Hughes, Joba, Kennedy, and Horne. A bullpen that includes Ohlendorf, Cox, Sanchez, Melancon, and others. An outfield of Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, and Melky Cabrera.

If Hughes must be supplanted by Santana, that may be the price of being the Yankees. However, it is important that as many of the other pieces as possible are kept. If Hughes is in the deal, Kennedy, Horne, Tabata, and Jackson must remain Yankees.

I understand that the Yankees want Santana because he's the best pitcher on the planet. Look what just happened with Milledge; Hughes could very easily come out and have a sophomore slump next year and the Yankees therefore could have "sold high" unloading him now. Santana gives the Yankees the best chance at a World Series championship next year. And I certainly want the Yankees to win the World Series.

But when all was said and done with the 2007 season, there were two moments that stood out above all others.

1. Phil Hughes' second career start against the Rangers. His fastball was blazing up to 96, his curve was dropping off the table, and the occasional changeup kept the Rangers off balance. For 7 innings, he was untouchable. Watching him strikeout Kenny Lofton, a guy who's been playing baseball since Hughes was born, and seeing Loften shake his head as if he's saying to himself "I have no chance" left me in awe. The Yanks were in the midst of their terrible slump to start the year. But Hughes was the savior. No matter what else happened in 2007, it seemed, the Yankees would recover because they would have Phil Hughes to be their ace of the future. When he pulled his hamstring and had to leave the game it was devastating. But everyone knew it was just a hamstring, not an arm problem. He would return; hope remained.

2. Joba Chamberlain pitches 2 innings against the Tigers in August. He faces the heart of the Tiger order and overpowers Guillen, Sheffield, and Ordonez. I still remember listening to John Sterling describe the futility of the Tiger's swings and getting chills. Joba was a force of nature.

I now have a vested interest in both Hughes and Joba, more than just that they play for the Yankees. I cheered for Randy Johnson simply because he was a Yankee. With the young guys, it's different. And remember, I watch the Yankees not just to see them win. I watch them for moments like I mentioned above as well. And if the Yankees get Santana at the cost of Hughes, the pressure will be on Santana to deliver moments of his own.

No Patience in NY

2007-12-01T11:39:00.000-05:00

Everyone knows of the "win-now" mantra in New York. And right now, it's not just the Yankees.

The Mets just traded Lastings Milledge to the Nationals for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. If you look at this trade just in terms of next season, it makes some sense for the Mets. A defensively solid, albeit offensively challenged catcher, and a decent outfielder who is more developed than Milledge.

However Milledge is only 22 years old. He has been considered one of the Mets best prospects for a couple of seasons. His ceiling is considerable. A year and a half ago he would have been the centerpiece of a Barry Zito deal with Oakland. Obviously, Billy Beane has cooled on him a bit, otherwise you think he would be packaged in a deal for a Joe Blanton.

The Mets don't have many good prospects that are close to major league level. They need pitching badly. It seems hasty to include one of their best trade chips in a deal that nets them no pitching. The Mets needed a catcher. But is Brian Schneider that much of an upgrade over Ramon Castro and Johnny Estrada? He is a good defender but he's already 31 and can't hit. Ryan Church is a decent outfielder, but decent outfielders are one of the most readily available commodities. Milledge has an All-Star ceiling.

If this deal was going to be the final piece of the Mets World Series puzzle, then in would make sense to a degree. But with so many holes left unfilled, it seems like they undersold one of their few coveted assets. If the market was really so down on Milledge, they should have just held on to him, and let him prove himself. Maybe he falls even further, but his numbers suggest he will be a good player, at least as good as Ryan Church.

Finally, Mark Loretta

2007-11-30T11:16:00.000-05:00

Last year I said the Yankees should sign Mark Loretta. Now it appears they are getting closer to doing so. So where will he play? First? Utility man? Already there has been speculation that he will replace Cano, assuming he was traded in a Santana deal. This seems unlikely, as I think Cano is untouchable. Loretta instead could be added insurance, much like Doug M. last year. He also would allow the Yankees to throw Wilson Betemit into a deal with the Twins, who need a third baseman. In no way would Betemit be the centerpiece to a deal, but he could be a spare part as he is a major league ready infielder who is cheap and young.

Red Fear

2007-11-30T08:15:00.000-05:00

There are numerous reasons why it would make sense for the Yankees to acquire Johan Santana. According to Wallace Matthews, the most pressing reason is: so the Red Sox don't get him.

This is exactly the kind of thinking that the Yankees need to avoid. There are more teams in baseball than simply the Yankees and Red Sox. The Yankees must do what's best for them. Whatever makes them the best team in the long run will also make them the best equipped to beat the Red Sox. It's as simple as that.

Matthews states his case:

And then there is one compelling reason for why they damned well better get him, at whatever the cost (short of Joba Chamberlain, of course): If they don't, he might just wind up with the Red Sox.

That, of course, would be disaster, and the end of baseball as we have come to know it around here. If Santana goes to Boston, the Yankees go to second place in the American League East for the rest of George Steinbrenner's life, and maybe Hank Steinbrenner's, too. It's as simple as that.

No matter how many home runs Alex Rodriguez hits, no matter how many hitters Chamberlain freezes, no matter how many great years Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada have left in them and no matter how much further Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy develop, the Yankees will never overcome a team on which Josh Beckett is the No. 2 starter.

Say the Red Sox get Santana. What would you set their chances at of winning the World Series next year? 25% at most? Sure, they would probably be almost a lock to make the postseason. But remember, for all of Beckett's "clutchness," it is still possible for aces to have a bad series. And Santana is only 1-4 in the postseason to begin with. So clearly, he can be beat.

To say that the Yankees will never be able to beat a team with Santana and Beckett is foolish, to say the least. I think a better statement would be that the Yankees will never overcome the Red Sox if they trade away too much of their young talent for established players.

The Price for Johan

2007-11-27T11:27:00.000-05:00

Couple of thoughts on the Johan discussions:

In my mind there are 2 untouchables: Joba and Cano.
Hughes is borderline untouchable as well. People forget that he's only 21 years old. In his 2nd major league start, he threw 7 innings of no-hit ball before hurting himself. In September, once his arm strength recovered, he pitched better than Santana did. Is he better than Santana right now? Certainly not. But we already know he can play in NY. His makeup is off the charts. And did I mention he's only 21 years old? Look at what Santana did when he was 21.
Santana is demanding a lot of money and wants to play for the Yankees. The media is spinning this as if it's going to be a huge bidding war. But really, who is in it? The Mets don't really have the major-league ready talent and could only make a deal by cleaning house. Boston won't give up Ellsbury. The Angels and Dodgers could get involved, but seem more interested in Cabrera. Not to mention they are unlikely to want to give up the kind of cash Santana wants. Remember, Santana is in control here. He has a no-trade clause. The Yankees need to stick to their guns. Offer Kennedy and Melky and maybe toss in another piece or two. If the Twins don't bite, then that's too bad. Wait and see if the Angels or Dodgers can come up with a better package AND convince Santana to play for them.
Not only is Santana a free-agent next season, where the Yankees can get him for money and a #1 pick, but C.C. Sabathia is as well. Ben Sheets will be a free agent and guys like Peavy and Lackey could become available, though maybe not for another season. The Yankees will have a ton of free money to pursue these players. There is no need to rush and give up their best cheap talent to sign Santana to a big money deal.
Santana in NY is still an unknown quantity. I know he's a great pitcher. But it seems like the Yankees always target one guy and then when he gets to NY, he is simply not the same player. Randy Johnson seemed like the answer. Too old you say? Javier Vazquez seemed like he was the real deal and he was 29. Jeff Weaver? Kevin Brown? Young or old, it doesn't seem to matter: no one can live up to expectations in NY. Santana wasn't that great down the stretch last year yet if he comes to NY, if he is anything less than the BEST pitcher in baseball, he will be a disappointment.

Quite the Horror Show

2007-11-23T09:43:00.000-05:00

Just in time for Thanksgiving, my dad stumbled upon this beautiful article by Tim Brown for Yahoo Sports titled "Yankees Horror Show Looking Like a Sequel." The premise, if I understand correctly, is that because the Yankees just resigned their players from last year, they are doomed to another horrific season. What would you call a season where a team got off to a bad start, but rallied to win 94 games and make the playoffs in a hyper-competitive American League? A horror show. That's what.

I think it's safe to say that Brown hasn't spent much time covering the Pittsburgh Pirates.

On the occasion of Alex Rodriguez's third American League MVP award and with his contract negotiations by now presumably in the seventh-inning stretch, this is a good time to consider what it is A-Rod so desperately desired to come back to.

The Yankees, that's what. The team that will undoubtedly give him the best chance to win a World Series over the next 10 years. There is no question. Did you know the last year the Yankees did not qualify for the playoffs was 1993? I know, crazy.

The New York Yankees have lost 13 of their last 17 playoff games and basically dismissed their iconic manager because of it, and they just spent nearly $400 million to put the same product back on the field, only with potentially less pitching.

Potentially less pitching, but probably more pitching. You left that out. You know Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Hughes? Those guys will be there all year. And there are about 6 or 7 other young guys who have a reasonable shot at contributing. But I'm sure you know that. And that $400 million they spent? That's not for next season. That's for 18 years worth of contract. Worth noting.

Assuming Scott Boras can get Rodriguez's contract through the seventh and eighth innings – outs the Yankees well know are the stubborn part of any game – next year's Yankees are looking again like the team that no longer does October with assurance and vigor.

Assurance and vigor?? How does a team "look" like they "do October" with assurance and vigor? Perhaps this article is relying that the reader won't really understand what those words mean. But I do. You're talking about confidence and mental health. I didn't see that in the box score, but you know what member of the team is most responsibly for that stuff, October or not? Oh right, the manager.

Indeed, assurance and vigor have gone the way of Mystique and Aura, capricious mistresses last seen on Curt Schilling's arm.

If by "gone the way of" you mean "are random made-up terms that have no basis in reality" then yes, I'm following you. And Curt Schilling's arm was the last thing to have Mystique and Aura? Do you mean that his arm helped kill Mystique and Aura? So let me get this straight: The Yankees had lots of Mystique and Aura until 2004. Mystique and Aura (along with assurance and vigor) help win World Series. But, as we are constantly reminded, the Yankees haven't won the World Series since 2000. What gives?

So, for the seventh consecutive winter the Yankees are working their way back from something less than a parade. See! I told you! This time, they do it as the second-best team in their division, a three-hour train ride from the trophy that once was so routinely theirs they should have claimed naming rights.

Yes, the champion – again – is in Boston. The manager is in L.A.

Right, the one who produced the club that had no assurance and vigor. Wait, wait, I just checked baseball-reference.com: A-Rod's 2007 Vigor? Only 17 vigor units. Dustin Pedroia's Vigor? 121 vigor units. Now it's starting to make sense. I don't even want to tell you how much Assurance Schilling has. It's truly embarrassing.

The ace of the staff – in standing if not numbers – is in Houston. Roger Clemens is, too.

Back in Gotham, Brian Cashman spent the past month reassembling the regulars: Rodriguez through 2017, Jorge Posada through 2011, Mariano Rivera through 2010, Bobby Abreu for another year.

It wasn't easy, and it definitely wasn't pretty, but neat and clean wouldn't necessarily be the Yankee way.

What does this even mean? Is there a Don Mattingly's sideburns reference in there somewhere?

Everything in the Bronx is a crisis, or perceived as such, or represented as such, and it all eventually wends its way back to Cashman's office inside Yankee Stadium.

"Basically, we're trying to move toward something, which is toward a championship," Cashman said Monday afternoon. "Time will tell if we're moving closer to that."

The Yankees will again be the offense that led the game in runs and batting average and on-base percentage, and that's why they re-upped Abreu, A-Rod and Posada, typically their three, four and six hitters. Hideki Matsui ought to be over his knee issues and Jason Giambi is – can you believe it? – in his walk year, meaning if he can stay upright and has anything left at all, we'll know it by July.

Which leaves, well, you know.

The Yankees didn't pitch that well again. They haven't been among the top five earned-run average staffs for four years, and in those four consecutive playoff series losses have had an ERA under 5 once. Their ERA against the Cleveland Indians this October was nearly 6.

Wait, you're using statistics to prove your point? What happened to vigor?

Chien-Ming Wang was assumed to have matured into a No. 1, then pitched poorly twice in the playoffs.

No. 1 starters cannot pitch poorly in the playoffs. Just ask C.C. Sabathia.

Andy Pettitte is home, choosing between a hammock and Yankee Stadium. The Clemens era has run its course. Mike Mussina is winding down, if not already wound down.

And as of today, the Yankees rotation has one sure thing: Wang. It has four pretty sure things: Mussina, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain. And then it has Kei Igawa and Jeff Karstens.

So you're complaining about the pitchers who might have to be the Yankees' SIXTH starter if Pettitte does NOT come back? What a fool Cashman is, for only having 5 or 6 decent starters in November.

If they were to brave a move to enhance their starting pitching – and, really, since Chamberlain is going to the rotation, the seventh and eighth innings are of equal importance – it would only get done if they freed up at least one of Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy. Cashman wouldn't budge when the Texas Rangers insisted on Kennedy (or Melky Cabrera) for Eric Gagne, and presumably would hold the same line should Johan Santana, Danny Haren or Eric Bedard, to name a few, become available.

I will go on record right now: if any of those pitchers were available for Kennedy and Melky, they would be in pinstripes.

If Cashman is concerned, he wouldn't reveal it in words or tone.

"Look how good we've done," he said, "with guys who've done it a long time."

Carl Pavano came to mind. Randy Johnson. Kevin Brown. Clemens II.

"What difference does it make if they're 21 or 31? Or 41?" he said. "It is what it is. You just go by ability. At least these guys are building on a factor they'll benefit from."

Hughes had a 2.73 ERA in September (beware the September numbers) and was terrific in two AL division series appearances against the Indians.

Chamberlain was sensational when not shellacked in insects.

Kennedy was great in three September starts, against Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Toronto.

[...]

So you've just presented a good counter argument for your earlier premise. Way to go.

And then he concludes with this:

[A-Rod] being there will help [win a championship]. The Yankees had better hope he brings his bat, though. Mystique and Aura don't have big-league fastballs.

I'm not sure how to coherently respond to that one, other than to say that it makes NO sense. Seriously, I've been asking other people, no one knows. Comment below if you can figure it out.

What's the Plan in Anaheim?

2007-11-22T13:58:00.000-05:00

Torri Hunter just agreed to a contract with the Angels for 5 years and $90 million. While Hunter is a nice player, $18 million seems like a pretty high annual salary for a player of Hunter's skills. Hunter is a decent hitter, but doesn't get on base very much (.334 OBP last year, .337 career high). He has power, but not tremendous power (28 HRs last year, 31 career high). He has speed, but not great speed (18 SB last year, 23 career high). Hunter has won a ton of Gold Gloves, but is not the defensive player he used to be. His range is maybe a bit above average, and while he is adept at the highlight reel homerun steal, his arm is probably a bit below average.

All of this adds up to a nice complementary player. However, this contract will take Hunter through the 2012 season, when he will turn 37. He has likely already completed his best seasons, though it is reasonable to expect that he will be at his current level for the next 2-3 seasons.

This deal would make loads of sense if the Angels were a CF away from a championship ballclub: swoop in and overpay for a decent CF who fits their system and try to win the title. However, the Angels actually already did that. Last year. Remember Gary Mathews Jr, he of the 5 year $50 million contract signed last offseason?

Mathews, as expected, did not play well last season (OPS+ of 93) and Hunter would certainly be an upgrade (OPS+ of 122). But now supposedly Mathews will be moved to LF, where his bat is not nearly enough. His only worthwhile skill is his decent CF defense and that will now be wasted. Vladimir Guerrero and Garret Anderson will rotate between RF and DH, which is a reasonable arrangement (though Anderson isn't a particularly good player right now, he is still making a lot of money and pretty much has to play).

So now what becomes of Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera? Rivera in particular is certainly a better hitter than Mathews. Is having an OF of Hunter, Mathews, and Vlad really that much of an improvement over Rivera, Mathews, Vlad? Certainly not $18 million worth of improvement.

The Angels also recently acquired Jon Garland for Orlando Cabrera. This is actually a good trade for them talent-wise, despite the common argument that you "can't trade a gold-glove SS who hits for a #4 starter." Garland will pitch better outside of Chicago's bandbox and Cabrera really isn't much of a hitter (he has batted .300 once and doesn't get on base or hit for power) and his defense isn't as good as people think.

But now Garland will slot in with Lackey, Escobar, Weaver, and Saunders, pushing Ervin Santana to a relief role. While Santana was inconsistent last year, using him as a long-man will kill his trade value.

So ultimately the Angels took the 2 positions in which they did not need help (SP and OF) and added to them. And while Hunter may marginally improve the outfield and Garland will likely be more consistent than Santana, the cost will not nearly match the improvement.

For these moves to make sense, the Angels must be planning a subsequent move. Perhaps Willits, Santana, and a prospect for Scott Rolen. Or a few more prospects to get involved in Miguel Cabrera talks.

A few media people have mentioned this move making the Angels a World Series contender. The Angels already were World Series contenders (remember last year, when they won 94 games?). With this team they will likely still contend, but not because of these moves.

Girardi Key to Bullpen

2007-11-20T08:21:00.000-05:00

Even those who love Joe Torre will admit his one glaring deficiency: bullpen management. Torre overworked the guys he liked and alienated the ones he didn't. For the 2008 Yankees, the only thing left to be addressed (outside of the return of Andy Pettitte) is the bullpen.

The Yankees currently have one major bullpen free agent: Luis Vizcaino. There have been rumors of him seeking a 3 year / $18 million deal, which seems way too high. If that is indeed his asking price, the Yankees would be wise to offer him arbitration and let him walk. He is a type B free agent, so the Yankees would receive a bonus pick after the first round.

So who will be in the Yankee bullpen next year? They have a plethora of in-house candidates to build the "bridge to Rivera."

Kyle Farnsworth
Brian Bruney
Edwar Ramirez
Jose Veras
Ross Ohlendorf
Chris Britton

They also have the likes of Matt DeSalvo, Tyler Clippard, Chase Wright, Jeff Karstens, and Darrel Rasner, though those guys would likely be better served as starters, albeit probably poor ones. They don't really have any pitches that are plus out pitches and therefore make better inning eater / AAA guys. Though Chase Wright could potentially become a lefty bullpen piece down the road.

The free agent class for pitchers is weak and is highlighted by the likes of Scott Linebrink and Ron Mahay, neither of whom inspire a lot of confidence.

So how does Girardi play into this? Pre-Torre, Farnsworth was one of the top 10 relievers in all of baseball. Therefore he is certainly capable of being an elite setup man. Last year however, his confidence was shattered and he never got along with Torre. Bruney suffered a similar fate. For a time, Bruney was probably the Yankees best middle reliever, however infrequent use and a lack of confidence ruined him too. Both Farnsworth and Bruney are strikeout guys who walk batters. This is the nature of how they pitch. But Torre showed such little faith in them that if they walked one batter they would be pulled. This led to a lot of straight fastballs. If Girardi can get those two pitching up to their potential, it will be a huge bonus for the bullpen. Ramirez, Britton, and Ohlendorf are all young and capable of improving as well. The bottom line is, it is much more likely that one of them steps forward as a good middle reliever than that the Yankees bring one in from the outside.

It is likely you'll see the Yankees sign one veteran anyways, rather it is Linebrink or bringing back a Ron Villone. Middle relievers are an inconsistent bunch, and you never know who will be good from year to year. Just look at the career numbers for Linebrink and Villone if you don't believe me. Which is why Cashman likes to, as he says, "throw some things against the wall and see what sticks."

Return of the Yankees

2007-11-19T19:11:00.000-05:00

The Yankees initial goal this offseason (after the Torre situation) was to bring back the team it had in 2007. And now it appears they pretty much have, as A-Rod, Posada and Rivera appear ready to sign, albeit each one of them for more money than initially predicted. But in each case, the money makes sense. Right now, each of them is worth their current annual salary. There is a good chance though that not one of them will be worth as much in the final year of their respective deals.

Will Posada be worth $13 million in 2011 when he is 39 years old? Will Rivera be worth $15 million in 2010 when he is 40? Will A-Rod be with $27 million in 2017 when he is 42? The answer to these is most likely no. But MLB baseball made over $6 billion this year. As these funds are distributed to the teams it will translate to even higher salaries. In 2017 we could see players making over $40 million, if not more. So paying A-Rod $27 million to play a decent first base and break the all time home run record could be a relative bargain. Remember when it was just assumed that Abreu's $16 million dollar option would never be exercised?

So the team that was the best in baseball the second half of the season and led the majors in runs scored will be coming back pretty much intact, for a season that is in many ways a transition year as the Yankee's young talent develops.

Still, do not sign Mike Lowell

2007-11-15T11:11:00.001-05:00

There are many positives to A-Rod coming back to play third for the Yankees, but one that stands out to me is that it assures that the Yankees will not pursue Mike Lowell. Or does it? It is being reported now that the Yankees are attempting to sign Mike Lowell to play first base. This must simply be a ploy by the Yankees to drive up Lowell's price.

For reasons I discussed in a previous post, outside of Fenway Park, Lowell does not hit well enough to play third. The only benefit he has is good defense at the hot corner. So if he doesn't hit well enough for a third basemen, he certainly doesn't hit well enough for a first baseman. And the one skill he does have will be marginalized. And there are a number of first basemen options that are sure to manifest themselves in the coming 4 seasons (which presumably would be the length of Lowell's deal). Did you know that Mark Texiera is a free agent after 2008?

Lowell at first would perhaps be a slight upgrade over Andy Phillips for a year (and even that is debatable) but at 15 times the cost. And after that first season, Lowell would be a burden.

Signing Lowell does not make sense on any level.

Could A-Rod be true to his word?

2007-11-14T18:13:00.000-05:00

So word is that A-Rod is negotiating with the Yankees without Boras, and wants to give the Yankees a discount since they lost the money from the Rangers. If this actually happens, and a couple reliable sources are saying it will get done, it would be one of the most interesting developments in awhile. Why would A-Rod have opted out in the first place? Really, there are two scenarios. (Again, this is assuming he actually does return to the Yankees.)

Scenario 1: Boras opted A-Rod out because financially it made the most sense, which is his job. A-Rod, realizing that the Yankees were out of the running, decided winning and being a Yankee is more important than money. Therefore, he cut Boras out of the negotiations and cut the Yankees a deal.

Scenario 2: A-Rod and Boras agree the best way to make the most money is to opt out. Once they begin contract talks with other teams, it becomes apparent that they've made an error and no one will give them a contract like what the Yankees were offering. So A-Rod pretends to be angry with Boras and cut him out so the Yankees are willing to negotiate again. He takes a slightly lesser deal than he would have gotten before, but what is still a better deal than he was going to find on the open market.

So which scenario is more likely? I don't know. I think A-Rod firing Boras outright would be the only way to really sell scenario 1.

Obviously, scenario 1 is much more "pro-A-rod" and would garner him praise amongst the Yankee faithful (who were already preparing what might have been the world's most inspired heckle for him at the 2008 All-Star Game).

As far as the Yankees are concerned, I think they need to take a hard line approach here. If A-Rod is trying to negotiate with them, they have the leverage. I've heard that the parameters of a deal could be 10 years and $275 million. This is too much. He will be 42 by the time that deal is done and there is no way he could still be playing third base. Really, he may only have 3 or 4 more years before he's a first baseman, though his conditioning would suggest he'll probably last longer than that. I think the Yankees start at 7 years, $175 million ($25 million per). Maybe go up a little from there, but they should probably be sure to avoid the myriad of perks, bonuses and opt-outs that were part of his first pact. A few straight forward bonuses are fine, but if you read his previous contract, even if A-Rod didn't opt out this year, he could have opted out next year if he didn't get a raise of $5 million higher than the highest paid player. And this could have continued every year until the end of his deal. So maybe it's best he opted out now and got it over with. I can't keep discussing A-Rod and opt-out clauses every year.

Who Controls the Steroid Leaks?

2007-11-09T08:49:00.000-05:00

News today is that 11 potential free agents will be named by the Mitchell Investigation as past steroid users. One of which we already know is Jose Guillen.

The question I have is who is in control of these announcements? George Mitchell, head of the investigation, is also on the Red Sox Board of Directors. How can he be appointed to an objective position? It was released that Paul Byrd had purchased HGH in the middle of the Indians-Red Sox series. And as we know, the Indians did not win another game.

Who decides when the public knows what from here on in? And who will those announcements stand to benefit?

Johan Santana

2007-11-09T08:14:00.000-05:00

Santana is reportedly on the trade market, so of course the Yankees are involved. I am really indifferent to this, as I know it will cost the Yankees a good number of prospects to make the deal. However, looking ahead, the Yankees are going to have a ton of money coming free next offseason (22 mil for Giambi, 11 for Mussina, and 11 for Pavano amongst others). And now that we know they won't have a lot of money tied up on Alex Rodriguez...

What stops the Yankees from blowing everyone away on Santana? Maybe not in years, but in dollars? What about 5 years and 125 million?

Let's say Pettitte does come back to the Yankees for 16 million in 2008 (which I think ultimately he will). That would mean you would be replacing 39 million worth of starting pitching (Pettitte, Moose, and Pavano) with Santana at 25 million. Seems like a reasonable exchange. Then you have a rotation with Santana, Wang, Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy, with any one of the number of other young arms (Horne, Sanchez, etc) waiting in the wings as well.

2008 is the difficult year for the Yankees. They have to try to not overwork the Big 3 (Joba, Hughes, Kennedy) while still being successful. By 2009, those 3 will be able to up their innings to that of normal MLB starters, and the team will have massive payroll flexibility.

Collusion?

2007-11-09T08:05:00.000-05:00

The Players Union is now investigating possible collusion in regards to Alex Rodriguez. I don't think not giving in to Boras' demands in collusion, it's common sense. The Yankees (the richest team in baseball) tried to make an offer and were approximately $203 million short. At least in terms of what it would have cost them.

So if A-Rod is too expensive for the Yankees, who could possibly sign him? The Yanks are the only team that can afford a player of A-Rod's stature and still put a competitive team around him, year in and year out. So either A-Rod isn't going to get paid (and by get paid, I mean sign the absurd deal Boras is after) or he is going to sign with a team that will most likely be bad relatively soon. Then maybe in the offseason of 2010, he can attempt to force a trade to a contender.

Do Not Sign Mike Lowell

2007-11-08T08:04:00.000-05:00

The Yankees are obviously looking for a third baseman. And you know who should not be a candidate? Mike Lowell.

You hear the same arguments for him: he's a professional, a gamer, he's gritty, he handles pressure, etc, etc. Really though, he's just a mild mannered white guy who happens to be an alright baseball player. The racist undertones to all this is the topic for a future entry, but they're similar to why Joe Buck and Tim McCarver couldn't stop comparing Dustin Pedroia to David Eckstein despite the fact that they have almost nothing in common as baseball players. Other than that they are diminutive white guys of course.

Bottom line on Lowell: look at his hit chart. His new found success is completely a product of Fenway Park. Playing for the Yankees, he would be lucky to be an average hitter at third, even if he would be a plus defender. I know he has all those "intangibles." But Jeter's got enough intangibles for the whole team. The Yankees need talent.

I believe Cashman is smart enough to stay away from Lowell, though he probably doesn't mind the Yankees being involved in the rumors, as it drives up the price for the Red Sox.

Will A-Rod Meet the Mets?

2007-11-07T13:11:00.000-05:00

I've been asked by MFZ to add the New York Metropolitans to the list of teams that will be pursuing A-Rod this offseason. I didn't put them on the list at first because it didn't make sense; they have a 3B and a SS already. And both of them are pretty good. And young. And relatively cheap.

This whole A-Rod thing is really throwing off my judgment. I like to think that I am pretty accurate on my predictions and assessments. And for the most part I have been. But when it comes to A-Rod, I seem to be way off. I didn't think there was any chance he'd opt out, if for no other reason than I can't imagine any team offering more than the Yankees. Well I was wrong.

Boras has said that to get to the bargaining table with A-Rod, a team would have to start with an 8 year 32 million a year deal. There is not a single team in MLB that this deal would make sense for. Not even the Yankees. And that's just the offer to begin negotiations. I make predictions on what I think is logical. But clearly, A-Rod is beyond logic.

So what about the Mets? They have two scenarios under which they can sign A-Rod.

Scenario 1: David Wright moves to 1B, A-Rod plays 3B. Delgado is traded. This situation is bad in a couple ways for the Mets. First off, having Wright play 1B is a waste of his talents. It is much easier to find a 1B who can hit than a 3B. Secondly, coming off a poor second half, the market for Delgado would be poor. So the Mets would probably have to trade him for less than he is worth.

Scenario 2: Jose Reyes is traded in a multi-player deal that nets Johan Santana. A-Rod is signed and plays short. For a season, this arrangement could work alright. A-Rod no longer has the body and range for SS, but he could be passable for a season or two. Santana in the National League would be scary and he would obviously be the stopper the Mets need. However, to lock Santana up long-term, the Mets would have to sign him to a deal worth more than $20 million a year. So moving forward, they would most likely have somewhere between $52-57 million locked up in two players. I know the Mets have resources, but not that kind of resources. They do not have enough young, cheap talent in their system to make such a top-heavy payroll structure work. Gomez and Milledge are nice pieces, but they'd probably have to part with one of them with Reyes to get Santana. And not to mention, Reyes is still currently signed to a very reasonable deal.

In either scenario, the Mets would lose their 1st round pick in the 2008 draft to the Yankees. Their farm system needs more high-potential prospects. And if the Yankees ever used that pick to draft a future all-star? Well I don't think I have to tell you how that would end up.

Needless to say, my final opinion on A-Rod to the Mets is that it shouldn't happen if the Mets are smart. But that is a rather large if in baseball these days.

Fantasy's Ugly Sister?

2007-11-07T12:53:00.000-05:00

In an effort to expand the scope of this website, we're starting a new fantasy feature on Rivera's Cutter, courtesy of My Friend Zigman (or MFZ for short).

Everyone reading this column probably has at least one fantasy football team (I'm the proud manager of 7). Everyone reading this post probably managed a fantasy baseball team or two (though I did just 4 this year). I feel as though most people are under the impression that these are the only two acceptable fantasy sports, and while I am clearly a fan of those games, I do not adhere to that notion.

Basketball and Hockey are widely overlooked fantasy sports, and this needs to change. There is something about the similar make up and scheduling of these sports that particularly lends itself to the world of fantasy. 162 games of baseball – way too much; 17 weeks of football (16 in fantasy land) hardly enough; basketball and hockey, conveniently split down the middle.

While baseball requires serious micro management for success and football only gives you the real payoff once a week, basketball and hockey provide a great balance of roster management and consistent stat flow. Look back at your fantasy baseball season. If you were not in the top 5 going into the last 2 months, you probably began to lose some steam. If you are 1-7 in pigskin land, you may not be losing interest but the season is almost over.

What I am saying is give these games a chance. For me it has revitalized interest in sports that I loved as a kid but have neglected for quite some time and this is especially true of hockey. I would have no idea who the Staal or Sedin brothers are. And that's probably not a big deal, but I am happy to be in the loop and be able to have a reasonably intelligent conversation while enjoying my boss's rink side seats.

I agree: I currently have Andris Biedrins on my fantasy basketball team. Do you know who he is? Neither did I until after our draft. Apparently he plays center for Golden State. Now isn't this fun?

(Not sure if I'm as down with Hockey, simply because I don't find their box scores very interesting and I'm not sure if I'm cool with combining Field Hockey and Figure Skating and calling it a real sport. But hey, more fantasy is more fun in my book.)

Proof of a Positive Manager Change

2007-11-06T13:58:00.001-05:00

So Girardi is at the GM's meetings in Florida, helping to give Cashman his input (remember, Girardi managed the likes of Miguel Cabrera). When I read this I said to myself "it's great Girardi will have input on building this team."

Last year I was excited Torre was still on vacation in Hawaii.

Johnny Damon for Joe Crede?

2007-11-05T18:36:00.000-05:00

The hot name to fill the Yankee 3B hole has been Joe Crede. While I fully expect the Yankees to kick the tires on Crede, don't expect a deal for him to be imminent. First off, he is arbitration eligible and there is a chance the White Sox might not tender him a contract and he will become a free agent. The deadline for this is December 12th.

The name that has been linked to Crede is Johnny Damon. This scenario would make sense because the Yankees do have an extra outfielder now that Abreu has been retained, and the White Sox really have no use for Crede. However, the Yankees would probably need more in this deal. The rumors have had the Yanks even including money to offset Damon's 13 million a year pricetag. However, Damon is not really all that overpaid at this point. As I've mentioned in this space before, Damon on a 2 year, $26 million deal is a pretty good investment compared to breaking the bank on Rowand, Hunter, or a declining Andruw Jones. Also, despite having a poor year last year, Damon still had an .351 OBP. Crede had an OBP of .323 in 2006, his last full season, and best season as a pro.

I like the idea of going after Crede, depending on what else is available. He is a tremendous defensive player and has power from the right side (30HRs and .506 SLG in 2006). While he is obviously not an OBP machine, the Yankees will have the likes of Abreu and Giambi in the lineup. And Wilson Betemit would make for a fine sub against tough righties. We'll just have to see if the price is right. If the Yankees are giving up Damon and money, they should expect a prospect or two as well, especially if outfielders remain in high demand.

Torre: Work Left to be Done

2007-11-02T08:27:00.000-05:00

Joe Torre has won 4 World Series championships and appeared in 2 other fall classics. He's second on the all time Yankee win list for managers. He was at the helm for perhaps the greatest season in baseball history, 1998 when the Yankees won 125 games en route to a championship. However, he is still haunted by the one achievement that got away.

"Scott [Proctor] and I together, I think it's a real special situation." Torre says, referring to the reliever he so frequently called upon in their days together in the Bronx.

"This situation now, I think we can do it. We can get to 107. That's gotta be our goal."

What Torre is referring to is the all-time appearance record for a pitcher, currently owned by Mike Marshall who appeared in 106 games in 1974. Proctor appeared in 83 games in 2006 under Torre. So what can Torre do to help account for the extra 24 appearances needed?

"Really, it just can't be about the scoreboard. We've got to ignore everything else about the situation but this: is our starter ready to come out? If he is, then Scott's the guy who should be getting the call" responds Torre, who seems reinvigorated by the opportunity and his reunion with Proctor.

So how does Proctor feel about all this?

"I'll be ready." Proctor says, when asked about his chance at the record. "When skip comes out of the dugout, I'll do the job."

When asked of any worries about his health Proctor seems unfazed.

"Look, back in 2006 I heard a clicking in my elbow. One hundred appearances later, I'm still pitching. Sometimes you just need to pitch through that kind of stuff. And I mean, on the plus side, I don't have to worry about facing Manny with the bases loaded and no one out in a tie game anymore."

Bullpen Idea #1

2007-10-31T19:39:00.000-05:00

A big issue for the Yankees this offseason will be reconstructing their bullpen, even if (and hopefully when) they bring back Mariano. With Joba moving to the rotation, the Yankees need someone for the 7th and 8th.

One idea I'd like to see brought up is Kerry Wood. He seems to be healthy and even if he were to break down, he could probably be had for a very low base salary (last year he made $1.5 million). This would be a very minimal risk for a team with New York's resources and it would have a ton of upside. Also, Wood reportedly is close with Joe Girardi from Joe's Cubs days. Seems like a good fit.

Where will A-Rod go?

2007-10-31T07:34:00.001-05:00

I've written many times I thought there was no way A-Rod would opt out. We know A-Rod requires a team that will pay him an extraordinary amount of money. But if we remember, the whole reason he forced his way out of Texas was because he wanted to be part of a perennial contender and an organization that had history. Thus, Boston and New York were his focus.

So now where will A-Rod go? Only one team that's out there can meet all of his supposed requirements (assuming that the Yankees are out of it): The Boston Red Sox. They have the money, the 3b opening, and the ability to compete on a yearly basis. Does anyone believe the Red Sox would really sign A-Rod? Well I don't. Which is why I think we must assume that A-Rod's commitment to history and winning is not what he says. I believed him and now I feel foolish.

But Boras would not have opted out so quickly, knowing he would be taking the Yankees are their $30 million a year offer out of play, without knowing there were suitors lined up willing to pay. So let's take a look at the other "contenders."

1. The Angels. They have been generally competitive recently, even if they don't offer the "history" of a team like New York or Boston. They have an opening at 3B. They need another big hitter. But is Moreno really willing to commit 30%+ of his payroll to one player? He said in the past he wouldn't. But then again, A-Rod said he loves New York. Also, the Angels do have a ton of young (ie cheap) talent they could surround A-Rod with and Garret Anderson's 12 million comes off the book after next year (though both John Lackey and K-Rod will be FAs who they'll likely need to resign for big dollars). Though, might it be easier the Angels just to part a small portion of their young talent and grab the much cheaper (albeit less talented) Miguel Tejada?

2. The Tigers. Detroit has a rich owner who has been willing to shell out for Boras clients before. They have been competitive the past 2 seasons. They could play A-Rod at 3B and move Inge. They currently have a payroll of $96 million so signing A-Rod would push them up close to the $130 million range.

3. The Dodgers. LA has Luis Gonzalez (7.1 mil) and Randy Wolf (7.4 mil) coming off the books. And this team apparently likes to hand out bad contracts. Schmidt (15.7 mil), Furcal (13.7 mil), Kent (9.8 mil), Nomar (8.5 mil), Loaiza (7.5 mil), Juan Pierre (7.5 mil) are all still under contract. That's 62.7 million worth of mediocrity! So what's $30 million to A-Rod? What is really depressing about this franchise, is that they have young talent that is better than most of the veterans they overpay. And bringing in A-Rod would mean less playing time for another prospect. But given that the Dodgers are signing Torre on as manager, clearly they have no interest in a youth movement.

4. The White Sox. Chicago's payroll was already at $109 million last year, so who knows how high they are willing to go. Plus, A-Rod would have to replace Uribe at short, since Josh Fields is the third baseman.

5. The Giants. They could give A-Rod a chunk of Bonds' money to be what Bonds was: a one man show on a bad team. They should devote their resources towards developing young talent to go with Cain, Linecum, etc. But it's awfully easy for them to just write one big check that will help assure attendance as fans watch a player strive for personal accomplishment.

There will be rumors that a smaller market team could get in the fray. The Marlins have already been brought up, but you could see Arizona, Colorado, Toronto, Cincinnati, or Washington get mentioned as well. But any of those teams would have to invest about 40% of their payroll, if not more, into one player. That seems inconceivable.

I don't think it makes sense for any of these teams to offer A-Rod what the Yankees did, nonetheless more, so stay tuned.

Simply Indefensible

2007-10-29T19:51:00.000-05:00

I have supported the entirety of A-Rod's tenure in pinstripes. People call him a choker. I explain small sample sizes. People say he isn't worth the money. I point to his record breaking production.

Boras claims that A-Rod was concerned about the fate of Rivera, Posada, and Pettitte. Then why didn't he wait to find out how their negotiations were going? A-Rod still had 10 more days to decide whether or not to opt out. Did he think the Yankees were going to suddenly have no good players next year? That they would rebuild? Come on.

A-Rod wouldn't meet with Yankee executives. He wouldn't answer calls from the Steinbrenners. That I think is what assures A-Rod is truly done in pinstripes: rarely will a Steinbrenner, George or otherwise, accept such a personal slight. They want people who are proud to be Yankees and value being a Yankee. Everyone knows, you play for the Yankees and you'll make your money. So in A-Rod's case, opting out means he doesn't want to play for New York anymore. It's as simple as that.

Beckett Vs Pavano

2007-10-26T08:56:00.000-05:00

There are lots of reasons one could come up with to explain why the Yankees are not in the World Series. Blame it on Torre. Blame it on the players who underachieved early to the Yanks in a 14 1/2 game hole (thus costing a chance at home field advantage). Blame it on Wang's poor postseason. Blame A-Rod (everyone does anyways).

Those reasons would all be incorrect.

The real reason? Carl Pavano. Because the Yankees got Carl Pavano and the Red Sox got Josh Beckett. Or so Harvey Araton tells us.

What does the image of Josh Beckett towering over the baseball postseason mean these days to the dizzy and disgruntled Yankees fan?

That the Red Sox are still playing? That we wish it could be our team batting against Beckett instead?

Is he the strapping reminder of the last window to a World Series title slamming down on pinstriped fingers?

Not really. Yeah the Yankees should have won that World Series in 2003. But they've had other "windows." Actually even this year. Did you know the Yankees went to the postseason this year? Yeah they had the best record the second half of the season and finished with one of the best records in baseball.

Or is Beckett more reminiscent of the Yankees’ purchase of damaged goods at a Florida distress sale just a year after he ushered in the beginning of the end of the Joe Torre era one October night at Yankee Stadium in 2003?

Woah. Purchase from the Florida distress sale? Yeah Florida had to unload Beckett because of salary. The only player we grabbed from the Marlins due to salary concerns was Ron Villone. I know that you're going to bring up Pavano. He wasn't "sold." He was a free agent. And the beginning of the end of the Joe Torre era? Why was that the beginning of the end? Couldn't it also be the 2004 ALCS? Or the Detroit series? Or this year's Cleveland series? How many "eras" are we creating for the Yankees now?

Rudy Giuliani may have to gag on a bite of his new favorite cuisine, the Fenway Frank,

Oh right. Rudy is a Red Sox fan these days... now this article is particularly timely and relevant.

if the summary difference between the Red Sox run to another World Series and the Yankees’ third consecutive first-round demise was stated as follows:

Red Sox: Beckett. Yankees: Carl Pavano.

Um, what? Yeah I guess if you traded Pavano for Beckett, the Yankees would have been more likely to play in the World Series. Though the same could be said for trading lots of lesser players for greater ones.

Oversimplification, you say?

I do!

Then give us a better explanation as to why the Red Sox pummeled the Rockies, 13-1, in Game 1 of the World Series last night while the Yankees’ action yesterday was limited to the Tampa-based administrative offices of Legends Field.

Phew. Weeeellllll.... The Yankees ace, Chien-Ming Wang, had a poor first round. Joba Chamberlain was attacked by bugs. The Indians hit like .500 with RISP and 2-outs. And as for the Red Sox? They just pummeled the Rockies because they are a better team. They crushed Francis. And before that they outlasted the Indians because Sabathia and Carmona fell apart. And before that the Angels were a walking infirmary. I could go on. But all of these have more to do with it than Carl Pavano.

Picking up where he left off in 2003, Beckett’s postseason numbers are becoming rather historic, downright Koufaxian. He has won all four postseason starts this month with an earned run average of little more than a run per game, 35 strikeouts against 2 walks.

Pavano? Recovering from another operation, still under contract, technically a Yankee, lingering like a bad stomachache.

You know who else has been bad? Matt Clement. Remember him?

Beckett and Pavano were Marlins teammates in the 2003 championship season and lastly in 2004, members of a staff of strong young arms that might have tamed the National League East for the better part of a decade had South Florida taxpayers been faster with their subsidization of a new baseball stadium.

“Beckett, Pavano, Brad Penny, they all pitched well for me, they were all good kids,” Jack McKeon, the former Marlins manager, said in a telephone interview. “But Beckett, he was special, great ability, absolutely fearless, big-game pitcher.”

For the 2005 season, Pavano signed a four-year, $39.95 million deal with the Yankees, who outwooed the Red Sox, who responded by making their own recruiting misstep in the free agent Matt Clement. That left the Red Sox’ rotation old at the top Curt Schilling and mediocre in the middle.

Right. So you've basically admitted that the Yankees and Red Sox both made similar mistakes that off season, signing injury prone mediocre talent. But both were able to overcome these bad signings because they have lots of resources.

By November 2005, the Marlins were in full budgetary meltdown and it was no secret that Beckett, their crown jewel, a potential heist for a lucky patron, was available. The right price included two bright lights of the Red Sox’ farm system — the shortstop Hanley Ramírez and the pitcher Aníbal Sánchez. The Red Sox had to take the veteran third baseman Mike Lowell and the $18 million he was guaranteed. (Hide your eyes, Mets fans: a little-remembered detail is that Guillermo Mota also went to Boston).

Right again! The Yankees couldn't take a third baseman. They have one. He's good.

And Mets fans care because? Didn't he pitch for the Mets after that? So they didn't lose him to Boston.

[...]

Beckett, 27, may still be anchoring the Red Sox’ rotation when the 45-year-old Roger Clemens is pitching for the Houston chapter of AARP.

Let's see... you have to be 50 to join AARP... Clemens is 45... So Becket may still be anchoring the staff when he's 32! Remarkable!

“There was some skepticism when it was announced regarding the prospects we gave up,” Larry Lucchino, the Red Sox’ president and chief executive, said yesterday. “But we had the unique opportunity to get a young ace, accent on both words.”

Memo to the ace-starved Yankees from Lucchino: eat your hearts out. [...]

Ace-starved? I thought the Yankees had the pitcher with the most wins in baseball the past 2 years? Not to mention a plethora of young arms with ace potential?

Wang didn't pitch like an ace in his 2 starts (one on short rest). Beckett did. But that's a small sample size. What if Wang had come through and Beckett didn't? Would this article be about how the Red Sox failed to sign Wang out of Taiwan a few years ago (and instead signed Failed Red Sox Prospect X)? So what this arcticle probably should be about, is how having your ace pitch well at the right time dictates a great deal in the playoffs.

Decision To Be Made Today

2007-10-25T07:39:00.000-05:00

Who will Cash choose?

Mattingly is obviously still the favorite, but Girardi seems to be gaining steam in the press with a "perfect interview."

The question is, what could they do with Mattingly if they hire Girardi? Would he stay on as hitting coach? Manage their team in the minors? Simply become unemployed and look elsewhere?

In other news, Buster Olney has reported that the framework is there for a 3 year 42 million deal for Posada. He also says Rivera seems to be close to resigning, which Rivera's recent comments would seem to confirm. Lastly, he suggests a 200 million dollar, 7 year extension for A-Rod. Maybe a touch high, but it makes sense. Quite simply, A-Rod isn't going to get the money from anyone else. Boras can bluff all he wants.

And as long as Pettitte uses his option, the Yankees are looking at almost the same team as last year, though perhaps with a different bullpen. The same team that was the best team in baseball the second half of the season.

Act like you've been there before

2007-10-24T20:42:00.000-05:00

Clowns.

And the next manager is...

2007-10-24T10:28:00.000-05:00

Well we know the next manager of the NY Yankees will be Joe Girardi, Don Mattingly, or Tony Pena, barring an unforeseen addition to the candidate list.

Girardi has a strong case. In 2005 he managed a low-budget Marlins team to a respectable season and won manager of the year. However, it is difficult to judge how much that really relates to leading a high-budget team that is expected to win the World Series. Also, he couldn't get along with the front office there, something that is critical in NY. Girardi does have the benefit of having played for and coached the Yankees before. And he has three rings.

Mattingly doesn't quite have the experience that Girardi has but he is even more beloved in NY as a former player. And his big advantage is he offers continuity. He has been a coach the past 4 seasons and the players like him. Having him as manager might not be as "player-friendly" as having Joe Torre, but at this point it's probably the next best thing. So hiring Mattingly would likely bode well for bringing back Posada, Pettitte, Rivera, and A-Rod (though I think they're all coming back anyways).

Pena is the dark horse despite having more experience than both Girardi and Mattingly. You get the feeling that the Yankees really like Pena (and the work he's done with Posada in particular) but they probably will go with Girardi or Mattingly. However, Pena will likely be retained.

The unfortunate thing is that it seems doubtful that Girardi and Mattingly could co-exist on the same coaching staff. I think if it was simply a matter of managing a team, Girardi would get the nod. But because of how much everyone adores Mattingly and the continuity he offers, Mattingly is the safe pick. Pena will likely be bench coach or remain first base coach for one of the two.

Rumors have Bowa leaving for the Mariners third base job, but now he is waiting to see how things shake out. You'd have to think that if the Yankees offer him a job, he'll come back to them. I hope that he is the bench coach if Pena is not or at least comes back as the third base coach. Bowa has experience, is a competitor. Also, how many times did you hear about his coaching at third base last season? Pretty much none, which means he was doing a great (if thankless) job.

Some World Series Thoughts

2007-10-22T20:51:00.000-05:00

What are the odds Ortiz legs out a triple at high altitude? 1,000 to 1? 100,000?
Nothing that could happen in this series would surprise me. Red Sox sweep, Rockies sweep, 7 game slugfest. I'm ready for anything.
It would benefit Boston to keep Schilling and Wakefield from having to pitch in Coors. Schilling looks like he'd be lucky to do 10 consecutive jumping jacks; I don't see any 7 or 8 inning outings in his future in Denver.
I wanted to be able to cheer against the inferior league in this World Series. I really did.
Yeah, it is awful the Yankees weren't in the ALCS, especially considering midges were prominently involved. But it has been nice being able to eat solid foods for the past week or so. Which wouldn't be possible if Yankee-Red Sox Armageddon 3 was going on.
Carmona and Perez looked absolutely untouchable against the Yankees. Worth noting.
It was nice of Kenny Lofton to actually try this postseason. But I'm glad he won't be getting a ring.
How is it possible that a Cleveland bullpen pitcher implodes in Game 7 and it's not Joe Borowski?
Papelbon has to have the worst ever "pre-pitch" glare. Doesn't he ever watch video of himself pitch?
The NL needs to get rid of the DH. Have you seen the list of candidates for the Rockies DH position? They make Coco Crisp look like Mickey Mantle.

In this case, Gammons gets it

2007-10-22T09:01:00.000-05:00

Peter Gammons, despite often being criticized for having a Boston bias, offers some very good perspective on the current Yankee "turmoil."

A dozen years ago, Buck Showalter was fired by the Yankees, and those who knew what he and former GM Gene Michael had done in restoring the organization thought it was unfair and unwise.

[...]

Whether it's Don Mattingly, Joe Girardi, John Farrell or somebody else, New York is not going to be Pittsburgh with a mountain to rebuild. It's the Yankees, and the Steinbrenners will spend the money on the big-ticket players -- meaning Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada or Johan Santana.

What Torre and Brian Cashman did to rebuild the team by installing young players from the farm system (under the organization of scouting director Damon Oppenheimer and Mark Newman, senior vice president of baseball operations) makes the Yankees far better right now than they were when they lost to the Red Sox in the 2004 ALCS. Torre nurtured Melky Cabrera to the point that he is an energetic, vibrant center fielder with one of the best arms at his position in the league. Torre and Mattingly brought along Robinson Cano, who is going to be a .330 hitter capable of 35-40 homers at second base. Shelley Duncan has legitimate power and plays the game with a youthful exuberance. And Mattingly still believes in Bronson Sardinha.

Then, there's the pitching, whether they keep Chien-Ming Wang or not. Joba Chamberlain can do whatever they want, and Phil Hughes, Ross Ohlendorf, Ian Kennedy and Alan Horne are the core of a staff that won't require giving Carlos Silva a Carl Pavano-esque contract. They might have enough to get into the Santana sweepstakes. Humberto Sanchez will be on the radar by August, and Andrew Brackman by spring 2009.

[...]

If Cashman is allowed to run the operation -- and there is every reason to believe the Steinbrenner family understands his accomplishments and supports him -- whoever gets chosen to manage will have one of the best and brightest allies and partners in the business. Because of the unseemly end to the Torre era, whoever replaces him will have the backing of the Steinbrenners and all the resources that backing guarantees. This makes it a more feasible situation than following John Wooden or Dean Smith. The Yankees are headed into the gold mine of a new stadium. Unless they lose A-Rod, Posada, Rivera and Bobby Abreu, and Chamberlain and Hughes break down, they're not getting cancellations on the YES Network. They are the Yankees, and their fans watched them when Horace Clarke bobbled balls at second and Rick Rhoden DH'd and Mel Hall was drivin' people crazy. Be it Donnie Baseball, Girardi, Farrell or whoever, the Yankees will be expected to make the playoffs. That -- and the resources -- sure beat places where the owner cares more about Bud Selig than about his fans or where the mission statement is .500, in due time.

The Yankees have a great foundation built. If they stay the course with Cashman, they will continue to use their tremendous amount of resources to stockpile young talent. And sure there are many reasons why firing Torre could have been imprudent; but firing Showalter was much the same. Great job here by Gammons simultaneously praising Torre's ability and showing how in some ways he is irrelevant.

There is Blood on your Pen, Tom Verducci

2007-10-19T09:23:00.001-05:00

There has been a lot of melodramatic, hyperbolic, and illogical writing done about Joe Torre in the past 24 hours. None seems worse though than that of Tom Verducci on SI.com. It really has it all: it makes bold assumptions, misconstrues facts, and is horribly one-sided (which I guess I am too, but I don't get paid by SI). We're going to have to break this one down, FJM style (that's firejoemorgan.com for those of you who don't know).

Blood on their hands

Yanks look disorganized, cowardly after Torre's exit

Great title. Illusions to murder and chaos. Wait, are we sure this is about a manager of a baseball team being fired?

While we're here, are writers required to say the Yankees look disorganized? Is there anything the Yankees can do that would make them look organized? Seriously? Let's look at the facts: instead of simply letting Torre go after the season due to an emotional loss, the Yankees brass, including executives who all for once have clearly defined roles, sat down and rationally determined how much Torre was worth to the organization moving forward. Agree or disagree, but that sounds pretty damn organized to me.

When he was robust and running the New York Yankees, George Steinbrenner never minded a little blood on his hands. He swung his firing axe decisively and often. I was there in Chicago at old Comiskey Park when Dale Berra cried into his dirty sanitary sock when Steinbrenner fired his father, Yogi, only 16 games into the 1985 season. Steinbrenner was rash, but he took the heat for it.

How disorganized they are now!

Cruel? Maybe. But on Thursday, the New York Yankees, with Steinbrenner's health rendering him little more than a figurehead, descended into a far darker and disrespectful place.

Just so we're clear: offering a man the ability to be the highest paid manager in baseball is more disrespectful than firing a man rashly 16 games into the season? Noted.

Under the leadership of president Randy Levine, who commandered [sic] the news conference yesterday as if general manager Brian Cashman and Steinbrenner's two sons, Hank and Hal, didn't exist,

Reporter: Mr Levine, what was Brian Cashman and the Steinbrenner's role in this decision?

Levine: Who?

the Yankees let corporate cowardice be their guide. This is a peek of life after George.

Corporate cowardice? Does Verducci even know what that means? I just did a google search on it. Pretty sure it involves corporations refusing to work towards the common good and hiding behind procedure. Target removing the Salvation Army from outside their stores because they don't allow solicitors comes to mind. The Yankees offering Joe Torre between $5 and $8 million dollars does not.

Levine's Yankees are proud of themselves today because they think they ran Joe Torre out of New York without getting blood on their hands. They think you are dumb enough to believe that Torre was not fired, that they really, really wanted him back, but that, golly gee, Torre turned down their offer.

No, they think Joe Torre wouldn't accept the contract they thought was best. It would have been easiest for the Yankees for Torre to return for one more season, to help ease the transitions of veterans and youth. But he wouldn't.

But there is blood everywhere on Levine and the boys, remnants of a sloppiness and covertness the Boss never knew. They spent three days crafting a contract offer they thought would strike just the right balance: just good enough for public relations purposes, but insulting enough that no man of Torre's pride and accomplishments would ever accept. Torre is the most successful manager in modern baseball history. He has delivered the Yankees to 12 consecutive postseasons. The next longest active streak by a franchise? That would be one. His Yankees crashed out of the first round of the postseason this year because a swarm of bugs attacked a rookie pitcher and the winningest pitcher of the past two seasons threw a total of 5 2/3 innings in two starts in the American League Division Series. Such episodes defined the unpredictable nature of postseason play.

I'm not going to discuss any further how this move was in no way sloppy. I've done that already. And I'm not going to get into the reasons why Torre needed to leave. I did that in previous postings. But I find it interesting that now the Yankees simply lost because of bugs and a couple bad outings by Wang. If only someone could have taken his team off the field when the bugs attacked. And if only someone could have stopped Wang from coming back on three days rest. Wait... Torre could have done both those things? The same Joe Torre??

So here is how Levine & Co. treated the Hall of Fame bound manager: they offered to cut his pay by 23 percent

or less if he simply does what he has done every year for 12 years and get the Yankees to the playoffs. Which apparently only he can do.

-- so insulting that the players' association has rules against such a huge cut for its members -- to bring him back only for one year (which keeps their sniping of a lame-duck manager in play) and to throw in "performance bonuses" (which are unprecedented even for the least accomplished managers)

He's 67 and his team has consistently underperformed for years

based on a postseason model any baseball observer with the least bit of sense understands is more random than controllable.

"There should be no accountability for what happens in the playoffs. Those who do poorly win!"

One year? Goodness, Charlie Manuel, Joe Maddon and Ozzie Guillen were given multiyear contract extensions!

"Teams with worse records gave longer extensions to their managers! Sure those managers didn't have nearly the talent to work with... but if other teams are doing it, so must the Yankees!"

No manager of Torre's resume or dignity would have accepted those conditions and Levine, who wanted Torre out for years, knew it. It was not the money; Torre doesn't need it. It was knowing that your employers don't want you, knowing that if another season began 21-29, as this season did, the snipers and leakers would be firing away with impunity. How could he ask respect from his players when his bosses did not respect him?

Certainly, if Torre only made $5 million, his team would be rife with mutiny. No player could ever relate to taking an incentive laden deal when age and a lack of recent performance causes a team to question if you have it anymore. Oh wait... and wait..... and wait.... alright I'm tired of linking.

Torre spent hardly an hour in Tampa yesterday with the Yankee brass. Does anybody regard that as real negotiating, a good-faith effort to bring him back? And Torre came to Tampa on his own accord, implying that the Yankees were prepared to low-ball him by telephone. Classy. And did Cashman, as he told reporters, really share a plane ride with Torre from New York and Tampa and, despite all the time and success they shared, not warn him of the ambush waiting for him at Legends Field with specifics of the contract?

Cashman filled Torre in on what was going to be offered to him on the plane. It has been reported. I learned it by simply reading the news. Seriously, it didn't even take that much research. Anyone could have done it.

But anyways, Torre knew and said he didn't know how he was going to respond. If there was no negotiating maybe Torre wanted an out and didn't care to negotiate? No, that can't be possible, because that makes the Yankees look less evil.

If the Yankees wanted to fire Torre, they should have just fired him after the ALDS, laying responsibility on him for a "failure" to get to the World Series seven straight years.

Hmm, where to begin? They couldn't fire Joe Torre. He was no longer under contract. There are lots of sites where you can look up the contracts for both players and managers. But pretty much anyone who follows the Yankees knows this was the final year of his deal.

He has not failed to get to the World Series seven straight years. He has failed to win it. But I know what you mean. And I do appreciate "failure" being put in quotations. Because the Steinbrenners are simply saying he failed to win the World Series. Really the Yankees did succeed and win it. The victory parade is next week.

It was the way of George. It was certainly their right. You could argue Torre didn't deserve it, but you had to respect the dictatorial right of Steinbrenner, even as the Yankees cling to this "World-Series-or-bust" mentality that has long been rendered obsolete in this revenue-sharing age.

It is too much to expect that the most talented team come out on top once in 7 tries.

Instead, under Levine, they took the cowardly way out and think they are slick enough that you won't notice.

Wouldn't cowardly be giving the job to someone else behind Joe's back? Right, though, very cowardly to sit down with him and explain to him exactly what he is worth to the organization moving forward. How dare they.

And who won't notice? Me? I noticed. Seriously, check below. I guessed it exactly. I even said that's what they should do. Am I a coward?

It was interesting to hear Levine assume command on the conference call. Hank, except for a lame football analogy ("I'm sure if you asked Vince Lombardi ...,'' he said), and Hal, who briefly showed an ability to decisively say nothing, were eclipsed by Levine's bluster.

It's so disorganized to have the President do most of the speaking.

Were the sons not taking command from their father? Is this not their inheritance, their responsibility? And wasn't this the first major policy decision in which they were supposedly taking daily control?

No. They said they wanted to be more in the background, unlike their father. Mission accomplished, apparently.

So, too, was Cashman diminished. As one veteran GM told me last week, "If Brian has it written into his contract that he has authority on all baseball operations decisions, where has he been? Why hasn't he said anything about Torre?"

He was at the meetings in Tampa, not sure how anyone missed that. Oh, and there are a bunch of quotes from Cashman on Torre. You can get those from pretty much any news service.

It's apparent now that in his heart Cashman didn't really want Torre back, a sea change from where he was in May, when as the heat grew on Torre from that slow start, Cashman told Steinbrenner, "It's not Joe's fault. If you want to fire anybody, fire me!"

How is it apparent that Cashman didn't want him back? And did you just break out "sea change?" That's a Shakespeare reference!

Cashman has fancied himself a Billy Beane-Theo Epstein wanna-be, an intellectual GM known for running an efficient system, especially when it comes to player development, rather than just a guy who writes checks. He has traded veterans for prospects, embraced sabermetrics and surrounded himself with young number-crunchers who get jazzed about PlayStation tournaments. The more he has put his self-worth in the image of cutting-edge GM the less Torre and his old-school ways became relevant.

Wow. This might be the most outrageous part of this article. First, Cashman was hired a year after Beane and 5 years before Epstein. He is not a "wanna-be" of either. Especially Epstein. That's like calling the Rolling Stones a Nirvana wanna-be. Or something like that. I assume you mean he has become a "moneyball," "sabermatrics" guy. Which is not true. He gathers all information possible. He uses traditional scouting and data analysis. Thus Joba Chamberlain and Edwar Ramirez being on the same team.

And PlayStation? Sabermetrics guys like xBox. Everyone knows that.

"There may be some surprising names that show up," Cashman said about the search for Torre's successor. Sure, Cashman would love to go all cutting-edge on the Yankees and get somebody young and unknown like Trey Hillman,

Just like he did when he signed Pettitte and Clemens. Why must he be so stubborn and resist traditional thinking? Damn kids and their new ideas.

the former Yankees minor league manager who is now in Japan. But would the Steinbrenners and Levine dare let Cashman replace Torre with a no-name? And if they thrust Don Mattingly, who is a nice guy and "true Yankee" but hardly sabermetric-friendly,

Apparently Don Mattingly failed high school Math. He is hardly friends with baseball statistics!

on Cashman, how much further is Cashman diminished? We've already heard Hank tell us that he personally insists that Joba Chamberlain start next season.

because that's what Cashman said they should do. And that's what BOTH the scouts and the number crunchers said they should do. He is supporting his organization. Anyways, outside of maybe John Kruk and Steve Phillips, no one thinks Joba should be in the pen next season.

Are these Cashman's baseball operations any more?

Yes.

Whatever happens, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada just earned themselves a boatload more money. Do you really think Levine's Yankees are going to let Rivera and Posada leave town, too?

Do you think the Yankees were going to let them leave even if they kept Torre? I know, I know, I answered your question with a question. But still.

They need to sign them more than ever.

I'd say they need them just as much now as they did last week.

This day is the official end of an era for the Yankees. The Torre era -- four world championships and six pennants in 12 years -- is over, with Torre taking with him the same dignity he brought to the job and the franchise.

It is the end of an era. Last year was the end of the Sheffield era. Next year will likely be the end of the Giambi era. Things change; this is baseball.

He didn't want the job under these conditions. What does that say about these Yankees?

Probably that they need to find a new manager because the one they wanted wouldn't agree to the terms under which his hiring would be most palatable to the franchise. Are these questions supposed to be hard?

Really, couldn't you have spent your time writing us another puff piece to make us nostalgic for the late 90s?

Without Torre, Everyone Will Leave!!

2007-10-19T09:16:00.000-05:00

I realize that the initial reaction of Rivera, Pettitte, and Posada to Joe Torre's departure has been negative. What do you expect them to say? "While I enjoyed playing under Torre, I am going to do whatever is best for me and my family." No, of course not. It would be disrespectful of them to NOT be disappointed in what has happened with Torre.

But at the same time, is Rivera or Posada going to take less money to go to another team where they don't have established roots? Doubtful. And is Pettitte going to go back on his word that if he was healthy he would come back for another year? Also, doubtful.

They will mourn for Joe, and then they will do what is best for their careers. And in all three cases, that is likely coming back to the Yankees.

The Yankees Are Always Wrong

2007-10-18T20:19:00.000-05:00

Well apparently I guessed the Torre situation exactly right. I couldn't be more proud.

So it's settled, Torre has no interest in coming back on a 1-year deal and the Yankees have no interest in guaranteeing more than that. So they will part ways and that's it right? Of course not. Apparently, based on the media outcry of Torre love, the Yankees have cruelly low balled Torre and forced him to quit. Let's look at this from the Yankees perspective.

The Yankees, despite having the greatest collection of talent in baseball, have not won the world series in 7 seasons. In 2004, up 3 games to none, they collapsed against their hated rivals. You could blame it on some bad calls from the umps, which surely hurt them in games 4, 5, and 6, and you could blame it on a bloody sock. However, the fact remains that in Game 7 the Yankees had no life. And they've failed to answer the bell in 3 consecutive postseasons since, winning a total of 4 games in that time. Any one of those series, taken individually, could be attributed to the fluky nature of playoff baseball. However every year the story is similar; a dispassionate Yankee team gets defeated by a less talented underdog.

So the natural thing to do is to question the manager. However, everyone likes Torre. Media, fans, players, everyone. He's gotten you to 12 postseasons in a row and he can handle New York. But he's 67. If you give him a multi year deal at over 7 million a year (his current salary), you are forced to keep him for the length of his contract or face a large financial loss. What if the trend of uninspired baseball continues?

So the Yankees offered Torre a 1 year deal with a base salary of $5 million. Less than he made last year, but still making him the highest paid manager in baseball by a large margin. And if he reaches the World Series, incentives would pay him even more than his last contract and he'd get a vested year at $8 million. This is the nature of business in the Yankee universe. The only way Torre would be expected to return is if he gets to the World Series.

Somehow this offer is incredibly unfair and disrespectful. The media twist has been "Torre embarrasses Yankees" and "Yankees Success Over." These are both wishful ideas produced by the Yankee Hater engine that fuels the sports market. The Yankees weren't exactly sure what to do with Torre; they were willing to move forward with him but not ready to commit long term to an old manager who has come up short. He said no, so they're moving on. They are hardly embarrassed. And their success? Let's see the roster before we start earmarking the Yankees for last place.

The best (and by best I mean worst and most egregiously wrong) argument in favor of Torre, that I've heard in one form or another on ESPN radio as well as Mike and the Mad Dog: "It's not Torre's fault they couldn't hit or pitch." This is one of the most asinine things I've ever heard. Hitting and pitching is what wins ballgames. The manager is paid to win ball games. It is HIS responsibility that the team hit and pitch. If they don't, it is HIS fault.

It wasn't MY fault the Yankees didn't hit or pitch well enough in the playoffs. Why don't I get paid $7 million? Oh right, because I'm not the manager. Apparently Torre should be paid an exorbitant amount of money, with no evaluation of his performance.

Why The Wait?

2007-10-18T07:46:00.000-05:00

The media coverage surrounding the Yankees and Joe Torre right now is nothing short of sickening. The Yankees will not make an announcement regarding their next manager until that manager is signed. It is as simple as that. Again, Torre cannot be fired because he is no longer under contract.

Cashman has flown back to NY, so clearly the Yankees have made up their mind on what they want to do. Either Cashman will go to Torre and tell him they do not want him back and that they're negotiating with someone else or he will go and offer Torre a contract. I actually am leaning towards the later. I think the Yankees will offer Torre a short deal with a reduced salary, with the stipulation that his coaches will be changed (read: Guidry you're done). If Joe says yes, they get to keep the manager who has gotten them to the postseason 12 straight years and who is a known commodity, but at a favorable price that would allow the Yankees to replace him at any time without absorbing too much of a financial loss. If Joe says no, the Yankees move on and replace him. And they can tell the fans, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte, and the rest of the players that they tried; they offered Joe the job but he walked away.

Maybe Cashman is heading to NY to tell Torre he's out, which is what Steve Phillips suggested on ESPN. But Steve Phillips is rarely right about anything (remember this is the same man who said the Yankees blew it by refusing to trade Melky Cabrera for Eric Gagne), and Cashman did provide this quote:

"The decisions that we're talking about [are], obviously, rehiring somebody, and then there's a negotiation if we do so," Cashman said after the meetings. "And these are the decisions we have to come to if that's the direction we choose to go.

"And that takes time. It's as simple as that."

The key word of course is rehire. The Yankees can't simply walk out of their meetings and say "We've decided to keep Joe!" or "We're going to get rid of Joe!" They have to first come to a contract agreement with Torre or someone else. So everyone, especially the media, needs to calm down. Last time I checked I thought there were still teams actually playing baseball. Maybe I'm wrong.

The Underdogs Bristle At Favorite Status

2007-10-17T09:54:00.000-05:00

Red Sox owner Larry Lucchino is complaining about being designated as "favorite" amongst the remaining teams in the postseason. And by favorite, he means team with the largest amount of resources, the role the Yankees usually play. He says:

"Walk a mile in our shoes and see how different we think we are from the Yankees," Lucchino said. "They have the benefit of the largest market in the Western world. We have to compete with them, but they are tens of millions of dollars higher than us. It is inappropriate to lump us with them. It is the Yankees out there and 29 other teams in the next category. We want to be the little engine that could."

It is nice that Lucchino attempts to use the Yankees as a reason to think that the Red Sox are a deprived, low resource, underdog. But it is also delusional. Sure the Yankees have the largest market, but it is one they share with the Mets. The Red Sox have all of New England. Don't get me wrong, the Yankees have the largest revenue in baseball. However, you cannot spend $70 million on JD Drew, $103 million on Dice-K, etc and then lump your team in with the Devil Rays and Marlins. For years the media as well as members of Red Sox Nation have attempted to portray the team as perpetual underdogs, a team that must rely on young homegrown talent to compete. This is quite simply not true.

PWO Predictions

2007-10-16T21:00:00.000-05:00

So some of the Yankees most important "decisions" this offseason hinge on players with options... or as I like to call them, PWOs. There are three of them:

1. A-Rod: Right now, A-Rod is NOT a free agent. Just to make that clear. But of course he does have his opt out option. Now, I understand the logic that it makes sense for him to opt out so he can sign one more "big contract" in his career. And it is Boras' way to take a player to free agency and let the bidding commence. However, if A-Rod opts out, the Yankees lose $21 million from the Rangers and will be out of the running. Who does that leave A-Rod to sign with? A lot of teams have been mentioned, however people forget the entire reason A-Rod forced his way out of Texas: he wanted to have a chance to win the World Series every year; he wanted to be part of the intensity of Yankees-Red Sox; he wanted to cement a legacy. Who can offer him the chance to win along with the money to satisfy Boras, not to mention has an opening at third? The Red Sox and The Angels. That's pretty much it. The Red Sox have the history, but can you see them really alienating their fan base like that? And would the Angels really break the bank on one player after being frugal for so long (well, besides Gary Matthews Jr.)? The market for A-Rod is quite simply not that great.

Most important, though, is this: A-Rod is keenly aware of his place in baseball history. He was willing to take less money to go to the Red Sox before the player's union shot it down. He wants a legacy. If he stays with the Yankees, he will be the marquee player on the marquee team. So those who claim "oh, he'll sign somewhere else where he can be on a losing team, face no pressure, and make a lot of money." He HAD that in Texas and forced a trade. If he leaves the Yankees now, he will become the face of free agency, the greedy superstar. A-Rod KNOWS this.

Prediction: A-Rod signs a 4 year, $120 million dollar extension with Yankees in exchange for waiving his opt out rights (this year, and the following years, so we don't have to play this game every season).

2. Andy Pettitte: Andy had a great season. He thrives in NY. The Yankees need him back to mentor the kids. There may be no Torre and no Clemens, but I still think Andy exercises his option and comes back for at least one more.

Prediction: Pettitte returns, 1 year, $16 million.

3. Bobby Abreu: The Yankees have a team option on Abreu for $16 million. At one point, it seemed like a no-brainer to let him go. Then later in the summer it seemed like a no-brainer to keep him. This one has been all over the map. I think ultimately they exercise the option. Sure they probably could sign him for around 11-12 million a year, but it would require a multi-year deal. Much better to go year-to-year with players in their 30s. The Yanks could decline his option and let him walk and then move Matsui to right and Damon to left. But both those players have become very brittle. And Matsui's arm in right could be a disaster. However, this could be plausible and cost effective if Cashman thinks Giambi can replace Abreu's production (especially in pitches seen per at bat) and Shelley Duncan is ready to spell the regulars.

All this is moot and Abreu comes back if Cash trades Damon, which is a definite possibility. And there is always the "exercise and trade" option with Abreu similar to Gary Sheffield last year. One thing I highly doubt you'll see if the Yankees going after a big name FA outfielder. They will be linked to Rowand, Jones, and Hunter, but it makes no sense to commit to a long term deal with another OF, especially with Jose Tabata and potentially Austin Jackson coming up.

Prediction: Option exercised, 1 year, 16 million.

Yankee Free Agent Predictions

2007-10-15T16:28:00.000-05:00

So what is about to happen in this crazy "offseason of change?" Likely very little. Let's take a look at the Yankees big free agents:

1. Mariano Rivera: Bet you thought I was going to start with A-Rod as number one right? Well technically he's not a free agent, remember? No one seems to remember, and it's a very important detail (much like Torre no longer being under contract and thus not in a position to be fired). I am not counting any player who has an option of any sort until my next post. So that includes Pettitte and Abreu.

Rivera is the Yankees most important free agent because he is irreplacable. I argued before the season that he should receive an extension on the grounds that nothing he could do during the season would hurt his value that much. I like the idea of Cash waiting on some of these guys before offering them money. But in Rivera's case, no matter how bad a year he had someone will be willing to pay him. And you cannot let him pitch in another uniform, so the Yankees have to pay him. End of story.

This was a mediocre year at best for Rivera, yet at the end was there any player you would rather be handing the ball to?

The Prediction: 2 years, $25 million, with a vesting option for a third year at $12.5.

2. Jorge Posada: Posada I was not as adamant about giving an extension to, simply because catchers usually don't age well. However, I didn't think it would be a terrible idea to lock him up for another year because of the lack of available catchers. Now Posada posted a truly amazing contract year, in which he improved in every category including defense. And because of the aforementioned lack of catchers, you could see a bidding war with the Mets among others. Posada claims to hinge on Joe Torre (along with Rivera for that matter) but just like with Rivera, I think if the Yankees offer him top dollar, he'll stay regardless of who the manager is. This is where he is comfortable.

The Prediction: 2 years, $28 million, team option for a 3rd year at $15 million.

3. Jose Molina: The best backup catcher the Yankees have had in recent memory. He wants to come back. He should come back, especially if Posada does leave.

The Prediction: 2 years, $4 million.

4. Doug Meint... : Doug plays good defense. But so does Andy Phillips. And the Yanks need righties.

The Prediction: Signs elsewhere.

5. Roger Clemens: ESPN "experts" were predicting whether the Rocket would play again and a lot of them said he would because "his body is still healthy." This made me wonder if they follow baseball at all. Or maybe they only watch games from the 90's. Roger Clemens has a balky hamstring (which has been a recurring problem the last couple years) and an elbow that would likely require surgery. He is retiring. He took a couple of cortisone shots in September with the hopes of one last gasp in October. It didn't happen. The only way it would make sense for the Yankees to bring him back would be on a $5 million prorated contract to be a setup man. I can't see the Rocket going out like that.

The Prediction: Retirement.

6. Luis Vizcaino: The Viz was the Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde of the Yankee bullpen. He was probably a victim of Torre's bullpen blunders, but who knows what his arm has left. That said, I still think the Yankees bring him back because they will likely throw a lot of money at middle relief and hope some things stick (more on this in a subsequent post).

The Prediction: 1 year, $4 million.

7. Ron Villone: He just keeps kicking around. And you never know when a left handed reliever might have a renaissance. Hell, Alan Embree is still going.

The Prediction: Invite to spring training.

8. Jim Brower: The only other free agent to spend time with the big league team.

The Prediction: Minor-League contract.

National League Baseball!

2007-10-14T21:23:00.000-05:00

It's just like American League baseball, only not as good!

Livan Hernandez and Josh Fogg are currently in a pitcher's duel in the 6th inning. Both will be FAs at season's end. You watch a game like tonight and you think to yourself "hell, if the Yankees had a starter like that to give them 1 ER over 6+, they'd be all set!"

Either would be sporting a 7+ ERA and DFA'd by June, I promise you.

Do not get lured in by NL baseball. It is not the same game. It turns Jeff Weaver into a hero. Keep reminding yourself.

The Joba Debate

2007-10-11T19:28:00.000-05:00

Surprisingly, there is a lot of debate on whether to turn Joba back into a starter. First off, the only reason he was used in the bullpen was because it allowed the Yankees to get the most out of him before he reached his innings cap.

But the thing is, Joba is no Papelbon, and I say this in a good way. Joba has four pitches: fastball, slider, curve, change. He showed only two of these (fastball, slider) as a reliever because that's all he needed. He has the kind of stuff that should allow him to get through the order multiple times. The Yankees have to give him the chance to do that.

Look, if he becomes a starter and struggles to maintain velocity late in games or get through the order a second and third time, the Yankees can move him back. I've already heard the argument, "who do we trust who can replace him?" And the answer is probably no one. But only Pettitte put together a good start against the Indians. What if Joba was an option rather than bringing Wang back on short rest? You wouldn't sign up for that? Quality middle relievers can come from anywhere (Okajima, anyone?).

The Yankees have had great middle relievers before in Stanton, Nelson, even Mendoza for a time. Would you trade them for a Clemens or a Santana? Or even a Pettitte or Carmona? In a heartbeat. And from what we've seen of Joba, he has the chance to be in that category.

Predicting The Championship Series

2007-10-11T16:58:00.000-05:00

People love predictions. We love to read them. We love to disagree with them. But universally pretty everyone is bad at making them. And if people like Jeff Brantley, Rick Sutcliffe, and Tony Gwynn are allowed to make them, then damnit so am I.

ALCS

This is a fascinating matchup and it's hard to look at it objectively and not just because I hate Boston fans with the fire of a thousand suns. When I see a guy like Josh Beckett, I think to myself, "no big deal, we'll crush him." And when I say we, I mean the Yankees (because I am part of their team, of course). Beckett hasn't dominated the Yankees since 2003. I see Papelbon and I think "we can get to him, especially A-Rod." Same with Schilling and Dice-K.

But can Cleveland do that? Beckett made the Angels look like an inner city little league team. Are the Angels just that bad (which is possible)? Sabathia was tough and Carmona dominant against the Yankees. Its seems improbable to me that they won't take one of the first two games in Fenway. And they'll each get to pitch twice, assuming the series goes 6. (And on a slightly related note: how scary would Cleveland be if Cliff Lee didn't fall apart?)

Anyways I can't pick Boston because I can't root for the National League in the World Series. So really I just have to find a way to justify why Cleveland can win. And I think I did. So Cleveland in 6.

NLCS

I'm not really all that interested in this series, except that I am trying to compile a list of NL pitchers who could succeed in the AL. Right now my list is:

1. Brandon Webb.

Yeah that's pretty much all I got right now. But Jeff Francis, I'm watching you.

So who am I picking? Well the Rockies of course. Why? Because Arizona has one of the worst fan bases in baseball. They aren't selling out games and it's the playoffs. They don't deserve a winning team, and they especially don't deserve a World Series team after 2001, when they were champions even though no one in the stands knew the name of more than three position players.

Oh right and I'm also picking the Rockies because they have the momentum, and the great home field, and young stars, and Matt Holiday, and whatever else.

Cruel or Prudent?

2007-10-10T17:09:00.000-05:00

A universal sentiment amongst Yankee fans and Yankee haters alike: Joe Torre cannot be left to "twist in the wind." The Yankees must be swift in their decision to keep him or let him go.

To me, this sounds like terrible reasoning. You're talking about replacing the highest paid manager on the most prominent team in sports. This decision should not be rash. You wait for the shock of failure, and in the Yankee universe it is always shock, to recede and then you figure out what is best for the team moving forward. Why would the Yankee brass let Torre go until they've done their due diligence on the consequences? How would it affect the players, especially free agents? Who would they want to replace Torre and would said person want to come to NY?

Really, the only reason Torre is "twisting in the wind" is because Sportscenter won't stop talking about him and the media won't stop camping outside his home. The days of Steinbrenner's impulsive management decisions are (thankfully) over. Let's let Joe and everyone else off the hook for a few days. They'll figure it out.

Where Have You Gone, Don Zimmer?

2007-10-09T17:36:00.000-05:00

Torre's time as Yankee manager seems to be done. Most of the media and public are demanding his return. They have many good points:

Joe Torre is good at handling stars and he can win in NY. He has made the postseason in 12 straight years which is no small feat. Replace him, and the team could easily evolve into chaos.
Rivera, Posada, and Pettitte would be more inclined to return with Torre at the helm.
You know what you're getting with Joe Torre.
Joe Torre is a model citizen and Yankee. Everyone loves him and if he were not Yankee manager, he would probably be President of the United States (Alright maybe that's not entirely true; Sportscenter said he would be second in the voting to Michael Jordan).

This doesn't change the fact however that Torre's team has lost to teams that were vastly inferior to his in 5 of the last 7 years. The only exception being the Red Sox in 2004 and Indians this year, who were both slightly worse, but good enough that in a short series there isn't that much shame in coming up short.

If you look at the numbers from the Indians series this year, you see a Cleveland team that got extraordinarily lucky: they hit almost .500 with runners in scoring position and 2 outs. The Yankees hit .100. Stat people will tell you that is a product of luck, and likely to swing the other way next year. Jeter, Posada, Matsui, all performed well under their regular season numbers. Wang threw 2 of his worst 3 starts of the year (along with Aug. 8th at Toronto). Again, bad luck. Or is it? If this was just one series, you tip your cap, and come back next year.

The problem is this happens EVERY year. At what point is it no longer luck and instead a product of something else? Fans and media alike tend to blame the players: clearly the Yankees are now a bunch of chokers. They need Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez, Bernie Williams, Scott Brosius, Derek Jeter, and Jorge Posada. Oh wait. They still have two of those players. And they just played terribly. In fact they were likely the two most disappointing players in the series. And guess what else? They've had Tino and Bernie back recently, with no great playoff gain. And most importantly: look at some of these player's postseason numbers, particularly in the World Series (and particularly Tino and Bernie). All of them are hitting in the low .200s in their careers in the postseason (with the exception of Jeter, who is coming off arguably his worst playoff series).

In 2001, when the Yankees were still loaded with "clutch talent," they were defeated by a team whose cleanup hitter was Danny Bautista. Are you kidding me? I don't care if they did face Schilling and Johnson. They still underachieved (though they would have won if not for that stupid strip of dirt that led to Rivera throwing the bunt away; but I digress).

Sure Wang came up short this year; not that much unlike Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez, and Randy Johnson. Again, is all this Torre's fault? Probably not totally. But at some point you have to make a change. Do what you've always done, get what you've always gotten.

I feel bad for Torre and I wish his career could end with him weeping holding another World Series trophy. He has meant a lot to the Yankees and it's hard to imagine them without him. Can you picture someone else walking out to the mound and signaling for Mariano?

Some people say he has the easiest job in baseball. Some people the hardest. But I guess we'll never know for sure until he's gone.

You Can't Fire Torre

2007-10-09T07:40:00.000-05:00

This post isn't to reflect upon "what's next" for the Yankees. That will come later.

But contrary to reports by the idiots at ESPN, Joe Torre cannot be fired. Why? He is no longer under contract. He can either be resigned, or the Yankees can sign someone else. Much like Posada cannot be released, because he is a free agent.

Nitpicking? Sure. But it is important, because Torre likely would not have been retained last year, except that the Big Stein didn't want to pay two managers at once.

ALDS Game 4

2007-10-08T16:50:00.000-05:00

Eric Wedge is currently taking a lot of criticism for going with Paul Byrd tonight in Game 4, rather than bringing back C.C. Sabathia on short rest. Not only that, but Byrd's personal catcher is Kelly Shoppach, meaning Martinez moves to first and Garko (who is having a nice series) must sit. Considering the Yankees past success against Byrd, pretty much everyone is assuming Game 5 is now inevitable.

This scares me: if everyone thinks a game is a "gimme"... well it usually isn't.

I say this rarely but let's hope the media is right.

Torre may have made a mistake last night using Joba for 2. I wasn't surprised when he came out for the 8th after pitching the 7th. I was more surprised he came out for the 7th. Why not let Farnsworth or The Viz pitch, albeit on a short rope, and keep Joba and Mo ready to bail them out if necessary? I think part of it could be that Joba was already warmed up for the 7th (as it looked like it would only be a 2-run lead). Part of the original "Joba Rules" was that once Joba warmed, he came in. Perhaps they are still trying to stick to this plan.

At any rate, it seems like Torre will have to go Farnsworth or The Viz if he needs someone in the 6th or 7th tonight. He could always use them batter to batter and only go to Joba for an out or two if he has to. Then rely on Mo for the 8th and 9th. But hopefully the Yanks rough up Byrd, Wang pitches well, and all of this is negligible.

Can Yankees Overcome The Bugs?

2007-10-08T16:36:00.000-05:00

Friday night was a difficult game to accept as a Yankees fan. Sure: the Yankees blew a couple of chances to score runs (but not many, as Carmona was tremendous) and they did escape from a plethora of tough situations (Sizemore's leadoff triple, especially). From that standpoint, the Yankees were probably outplayed. However, it is still reasonable to conjecture, that if not for a swarm of bugs in the 8th inning, the Yankees win the game and are currently up 2 games to 1.

As a sports fan I've had to deal with disappointment many times. Sometimes the players fail or coaches fail and I have to deal with it. Sometimes the umpires or referees fail. This is tougher to take, obviously, but it is the flawed human aspect of sports. But when bugs help determine the fate of a team that I spend countless hours a year following, it is difficult to simply say "thems the breaks."

So with all that in mind, the Yankees must rally and win the next two games. It's the only way to make this right.

Johnny Damon, Underpaid Outfielder

2007-10-03T20:36:00.000-05:00

In Buster Olney's latest blog entry, he claims that "[Andruw] Jones is said to be seeking a seven-year deal for something around $20 million annually." Seven years and 140 million for a guy who had an OPS of .724 and is slipping defensively? If he actually gets anything close to that figure, Johnny Damon, who the Yanks figure to be shopping this off-season as the "odd man out," becomes a relative bargain. Sure Damon had an off year also, with a .747 OPS, but he played better once he was in shape in the second half (.814 OPS). Also, he has 2 years, $26 million left on his contract. Are the odds better that Damon has 2 more productive seasons or that Jones has 7?

Playoff Lineup

2007-09-28T07:11:00.000-05:00

Now that the Yankees have clinched the playoffs, Torre can get his regulars ready for the postseason (much to the chagrin of my fantasy team, which has A-Rod, Jeter, and Abreu). So what will that roster look like? Let's speculate:

1. Damon, LF
2. Jeter, SS
3. Abreu, RF
4. A-Rod, 3B
5. Matsui, DH
6. Posada, C
7. Cano, 2B
8. Doug M, 1B
9. Melky, CF

Bench: Giambi, Duncan, Betemit, Molina

Rotation:
1. Wang
2. Pettitte
3. Clemens
4. Mussina

Bullpen: Rivera, Joba, Viscaino, Farnsworth, Hughes, Villone

I think these are the definites, with the possible exception of Villone. However, everyone knows how much Joe loves experience and Villone has loads of it. Also, he's a lefty who can be used situationally, or in long relief if a game gets out of hand. So he does make some sense.

I think you'll see one more position player, either Gonzalez or Sardhina. Will depend on where Torre thinks they need more depth, IF or OF. Both players can run.

This leaves one more spot in the bullpen, most likely for Ramirez, Veras, or Ohlendorf. I'd like to see what Ohlendorf can do, but probably not the best time of year to be trying him out. I think Torre wants this spot to go to Ramirez, but Edwar is going to have to show something these final few days. (BTW, I love that Torre and Guidry were "excited" to use Ramirez Tuesday night because they had just fixed a "mechanical flaw they found." And Edwar proceeds to come out and have absolutely zero control. Imagine how good the Yankees could be with a real pitching coach?)

If the Yanks advance to the ALCS, but Clemens has a setback physically or Mussina falls apart, I think you could see Kennedy get added to the roster, assuming his back is healthy.

How Bad is the National League?

2007-09-28T06:59:00.000-05:00

Did you know that it is possible no team in the NL will finish with 90 wins or above? It's unlikely, as the D-Backs need only 1 win in their final 3 games to do it... but that it's still possible on September 28th is crazy.

Oh, and those same "best record in the NL" D-backs? Well they've allowed more runs than they've scored. So if you believe in things like run-differential (and disagree with Joe Morgan) the D-backs are probably nothing more than an average team with above average luck.

The team everyone thought was the class of the NL (The Mets) is fading fast and just got shut out for 8 innings by Joel Piniero. Yes THAT Joel Piniero. The one who wasn't good enough to be a middle reliever in the AL East. How many games would the Blue Jays win if they played in the NL? 104? The Devil Rays would at least be competing for a playoff spot over there.

There hasn't been this big of a disparity between professional sports conferences since the NFC dominated the AFC in the mid-90s.

Yanks Fail to Clinch

2007-09-26T10:22:00.001-05:00

Disappointing loss last night. When you're up 5-0 on the Devil Rays and your magic number is 1... well you should end up celebrating. Couple of interesting things:

Torre still insists on not using Mariano unless it's a save situation. But last night was more than that. Joe treated the game as an audition to see who could be counted on in the postseason. Passing grade for Farnsworth and Veras, failing grade for Ramirez, Bruney, and Karstens. And while it was interesting to see what some of these guys can or cannot offer, I would expect Torre to manage like this AFTER the Yankees clinch a spot, not before. Even if clinching does seem inevitable.
That homerun for A-Rod was significant, and not just because it was a grand slam and he's on my fantasy team. A-Rod tends to go in streaks when it comes to his power numbers. In a sense, he'd been slumping lately (though it's hard to call any period of time when you hit a go-ahead single against Papelbon and the Red Sox a slump). It would be nice to see him start another power binge just in time for the playoffs.
The decision not to start Clemens is a no-brainer. As we saw with Clemen's start against the Red Sox, he can perform well after a layoff. Get him ready for Game 3.
Torre has clearly thrown in the towel as far as the division goes. And getting our players ready for the postseason probably should take priority. However, one thing Torre does not do well is motivate players and there is always the fear of going into the postseason passionless. The one saving grace here, and the reason I think this Yankee team has an edge on ones of the past few years, is the youth. Gone are mercenary players like Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield. Melky and Cano are now integral members of the clubhouse. The new kids, Joba, Hughes, Duncan, etc cheer... well like we do as fans. Did you see Joba screaming in the dugout after Jeter hit that three run homerun off Schilling? It was a lot like me jumping and screaming in my room at the same time... except cooler because Joba is a shut-down pitcher who throws 100mph and plays for the Yankees.
It is disconcerting that the Yankees seem to lose most extra inning affairs (they are 4-8 on the year). Obviously I like to point to Torre's handling of the bullpen, but it seems like the offense has been freezing too. At the same time, it seems like the Yanks are in every game, which is a good sign.

Division Race Over?

2007-09-25T13:20:00.000-05:00

Is the division race over after yesterday's loss to the Blue Jays? While a 1st place finish for the Yanks should be firmly placed in the "improbable" category, it certainly wouldn't take a miracle. The Red Sox since the all-star break have been barely above .500. They easily could go 3-3 against Oakland and Minnesota, two teams who are strong despite not being playoff contenders. That would mean the Yankees need to go 5-1 against Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Which is plausible, even if it's not likely.

Shhhh.....

2007-09-20T19:53:00.000-05:00

Guess who's sneaking up...

Joe Morgan, Baseball Genius

2007-09-19T13:08:00.000-05:00

This actually happened in one of Joe Morgan's ESPN chats:

John (Chicago, IL): Joe, who do you think, in your opinion, is going to represent the AL in the World Series this year and why? I like Boston because they have the best run differential in baseball and their pitching top to bottom has been statistically the best all year. What do you think?

Joe Morgan: Well the run differential means nothing. It is like OPS, it mean nothing in the grander scheme of things.

FireJoeMorgan.com does a good job ripping it apart (and if you don't read that site, btw, you should).

But is this guy serious? I've discussed run differential on this blog and it is generally well known that a hitter's ability to get on base and hit for power (read: OPS) is the key to producing the most runs. And guess what happens to the team with the most runs? They win.

So I'm not sure what Joe means by the "grander scheme of things." Is he getting philosophical on us? I guess run differential and OPS are meaningless in life, taking a back seat to Family, Friends, maybe paying the bills even. But I thought we were talking about baseball? Where players are paid to help teams win?

Michael Kay

2007-09-19T13:00:00.000-05:00

During last night's Yankee game Michael Kay said: "The Red Sox can now feel the hot breath of the Yankees upon their neck."

While I know Michael's heart was in the right place, and I do share in his excitement over the Yankee's play, that sounds like something out of poorly written erotica novel. Which brings up an interesting question: what do you think it's like to hang out with Kay socially? Does he ever drop the facade? Or is that how he is all the time? Does he make the some awkward jokes that he makes with O'Neill, Flaherty, Girardi, etc? Can he utter the phrase "see ya" normally? ("Take it easy, Mike" "SEE YA!") I have a lot of questions.

The Almighty Save

2007-09-19T12:54:00.000-05:00

While things are going good for the Yanks right now, Monday's game was quite frustrating. Torre insists upon using Rivera in any situation that is deemed a "save." 2 outs in the 9th, up by 4, 2 runners on, Huff coming up. Enter Sandman. Yeah Farnsworth was struggling, but Huff hits Rivera well. If Farnsworth can't hold a 4 run lead with 2 outs, why is he even on our team? Why not let him face Huff at least? Even a home run and the Yankees are still leading. Rivera had thrown a lot of pitches the night before and using him would mean we'd be without Rivera, Joba, Farnsworth, and Vizcaino Tuesday night. Luckily Tuesday night was a blowout, but why go to Rivera so soon? Oh right, cause it's a "save situation."

Moose and the Rocket

2007-09-19T12:34:00.000-05:00

Things have been going quite well for the Yankees recently, getting big starts out of both Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina. If both can pitch effectively for the rest of the year, the Yankees rotation matches up with anyone.

I think this is probably the last ride for the Rocket and I get the sense he got 2 cortisone shots in his elbow because he doesn't care about his arm long term at this point. He said before the Red Sox game he would be ready to go out and shut them down and he did. He is a competitor, and I'm sure would like nothing more than to finish out his career helping to lead a run to the World Series.

Taking A Look At Expected Win-Loss

2007-09-06T20:02:00.000-05:00

So I was sorting through the standings today and found (what I thought to be) some interesting stats. The Yankees expected win-loss, based on their runs scored and allowed, is 84-56. That would be 6 games better than they currently are and would give them the same record as the Red Sox. The Sox however, have an expected W-L of 90-50. So apparently, both teams have had an equal share of bad luck and the Sox have probably played better over the course of the season. This makes sense, especially given each team's performance early in the season.

What I find even more interesting? The next best teams (with their corresponding ex W-L):

LA Angels: 79-60
Cleveland: 78-61
Detroit: 76-63

So clearly the Red Sox and Yankees are the class of the AL.

Seattle? They are 68-70.

Do these expected W-L records really mean anything? Yes and no. They don't account for "clutch play" and there is certainly something to be said for teams that win close games. However, take a look at the two teams whose run differential early in the season didn't line up with their performance: The New York Yankees and The Chicago Cubs. Both currently have a claim on a playoff spot after being left for dead in June. So run differential is a good way of telling how good teams really are. So even more reason why the Yankees probably fear Detroit a lot more than Seattle when it comes to the wild card.

Another interesting note: The Arizona Diamondbacks are in first place in the NL West. According to expected win-loss, they should be last.

Trade Watch

2007-07-23T11:38:00.000-05:00

The Yanks did what they had to: take 3 out of 4 from the D-Rays. Fun couple games to watch, as the blowout got to be so severe that Torre switched out his DH (Duncan) to 1B and had his pitchers hit. And still won 21-4.

We are officially in MLB Trade Deadline season. This year should be pretty quiet, but Cash does have a few things supposedly cooking:

Jose Molina for Jeff Kennard: This deal is done. While it is sad to see Wil Nieves go, (only because of his unintentional comedy factor and general "nice-guy" status) he was really a pretty terrible baseball player. Most importantly, guys named Molina absolutely KILL the Yankees (see playoffs, '05 when the Angels batted Bengie Molina 4th (!) ). So now we have a Molina to call our own.

Scott Proctor for Ty Wigginton: This trade was talked about all weekend. Wigginton is playing well and would be a good fit for us. However, I am loathe to see a reliever like Proctor go who throws hard and is still years away from free agency. The fact that everyone in the media seems to know about this deal makes me think it's not imminent.

Scott Proctor for Wilson Betemit: This is being reported by the NYPost, just like last year when Betemit was with the Braves. Not sure I understand the interest here: Betemit is not having a particularly good year, even if he is versatile.

Prospects for Mark Loretta: I talked about this in a recent post. I love Loretta, but it kills me the Yankees didn't sign him over the offseason.

Prospects for Octavio Dotel: Another guy the Yanks could have secured during the offseason. He gave us nothing last year, but now he has finally recovered from TJ surgery. The question is: is he a substantially better option than what we have currently?

I doubt any of these proposed trades will actually happen. One thing that Cashman is notorious for, is not leaking trade talk. Look at the one trade that did happen: we didn't know about the Molina acquisition until it was done. Expect more of the same.

What is interesting though is if there is any truth to the Proctor rumors, we'd be dealing from a position of relative weakness by subtracting from the bullpen. Could be, as Peter Gammons has suggested, the Yankees have faith in the guys in their minors (Britton, Chamberlain, Ohlendorf, etc) to come up and do the job. Which I think they should.

Bad Night

2007-07-20T21:46:00.001-05:00

Frustrating night for the Yankees. Not only do they get blown out by Tampa Bay, but Joba Chamberlain gets knocked around for Trenton and Edwar Ramirez can't throw a strike. Though how is it possible that Ramirez can come up, have 2 good outings, and then not be used for 2 weeks when the Yankees have an overtaxed bullpen? I'd like to see him and his crazy changeup get another chance. But we know how Torre is.

Cash Should Have Listened

2007-07-20T21:39:00.001-05:00

On this blog I ranted about how much I wanted Mark Loretta as our 1B option in the offseason. Now this from Buster Olney, talking about trade interest in Loretta:

" [...] Loretta fits a different category. The veteran, hitting .302 with a 383 on-base percentage, has a one-year deal, and the Astros can capitalize on his trade value now -- for the Padres, there's a chance he would supplant Marcus Giles, who was just benched, as the second baseman, and for the Yankees, he could fill in at multiple positions, perhaps serving as an offensive upgrade over Miguel Cairo."

So now we may have to give away prospects to acquire Loretta.

Let's Be Realistic

2007-07-02T10:52:00.000-05:00

There seems to be a lot of public outcry amongst Yankee fans to "blow the team up." Pete Abraham does a good job (see link to right) of debunking a lot "ideas" (Jose Tabata, Todd Helton, etc). The real reality of the situation here is that there is not much Cashman can do. The Yankees have little choice but to stick with the likes of Abreu, Matsui, Cano, etc. And rightfully so: Think of it this way, what is more likely, that the Yankees find someone in the minors or from another team's scrap heap that has a big second half of that Bobby Abreu has a big second half? Same goes for Matsui, Cano, Damon, et al. We went from a team in April that was all offense and no starting pitching, to the exact opposite (Pettitte's one bomb of a start nonwithstanding).

So what can the Yankees do?

Trade Mike Myers and Kyle Farnsworth. We'd probably get little in return, but Myers is absolutely worthless against lefties (and we may just have to DFA him) and Farnsworth is a detriment to our team in many ways, not just his inability to throw strikes. We already have Bruney who has a big arm but command issues; but at least with Bruney he does strike people out. We have to hope Proctor can recover and Viscaino is improving. Let's see what Chris Britton and Edwar Ramirez can do.
Find a RHB. The Yankees need someone who can hit lefties.
Stand pat. Let your veterans come around. See what Andy Phillips can do.

That's it. And I'm still optimistic enough to think it will work.

Insane

2007-06-28T07:27:00.000-05:00

I had told myself I would stop complaining about Torre because it is futile. But for anyone paying attention to how he has handled the bullpen lately... well let's recap:

In Saturday's 13 inning game Joe refused to go to Rivera, in a game where a run would beat us. This is semi-forgivable, at least Rivera had been used for 1 1/3 innings the night before. However, by the end of the game, Rivera was the only pitcher Torre had left. Which should never happen. Say Proctor gets out of the 13th, we score a run in the top of the 14th and in comes Rivera. The Giants scrounge together some bloop singles and score a run to tie it. Now who pitches the 15th? The 16th? You MUST have someone left behind your closer because your closer is too valuable to let waste away in a game where of an indeterminable length. As a matter of fact, this is precisely why you have a "long man" or "mop up guy." Which is what Villone and Myers both should be at this point.

On Tuesday night, again we went to the bottom of the 9th with the game tied. Chris Ray, who the Yankees have owned, was in for the Orioles. We had the top of the order due up in the 10th. Getting through the 9th was of paramount importance. Yet still, Rivera was kept to the bench despite having not pitched since Friday. Though to Proctor's credit, he fought that inning. He had Patterson struck out on a 3-2 pitch down the pipe that was called a ball (I don't know what Proctor did to the umpires to make them hate him, but it has been absurd this year. See the Angels series as well). Also, Proctor should have had Patterson doubled off second but was too stunned from that diving catch to throw the ball, as he clearly had the wind knocked out of him. Torre has to call an injury timeout here. That Proctor got back up and couldn't find the strikezone is no real surprise.

Last night, with the Yankees down 4-0 in the bottom of the 8th, who does Torre call upon? Well only the incomparable Mariano Rivera! And why would you bring him in for this mop up situation you might ask? Because he needed WORK. Insane. He wouldn't need work Joe if you would use him when the game is on the line.

Rob Neyer, who I'm not always a fan of, actually has a good blog entry (see right) about this exact thing.

Pete Abraham is speculating that Shea Hillenbrand will be in pinstripes by the weekend. It's obvious we need to do something to shake up the offense, so I'm fine with it. Though if we're going to pickup a potential "bad chemistry" guy, I'd still prefer Milton Bradley. Bradley is intense and freaks out but he wants to win. Hillenbrand complains over lack of playing time. I think the Yankees would be a positive influence on Bradley whereas I don't know about Hillenbrand. And perhaps most importantly, if you look at the numbers, Bradley is simply better (though albeit more injury prone).

What's Wrong Now?

2007-06-25T16:43:00.000-05:00

I go away for one weekend and the Yankees fall apart. The saddest part of the Yankees struggle for consistency is the remarkable performance A-Rod is putting together is being wasted. This year we essentially have 3 commodities: Jeter, A-Rod, and Posada. Matsui and Abreu keep showing signs of getting hot but just can't seem to keep it going. Cano has been exposed: he simply does not control the strike zone well enough. Now that he has been scouted better, he can't make up for it with his quick bat. Melky has been less patient than last year, when his OBP helped make up for his lack of power. Cairo has played well for what he is: a utility player and spot starter. Damon has simply been a waste of space and his current fight to stay off the DL is nothing short of a joke.

So right now we really have 2 major holes that need to be filled: 1B and DH. We can afford to let Phillips hack away at 1B if the DH hole is filled. Oakland currently has a glut of OFs and just designated Milton Bradley (he of a +.800 OPS) for assignment. I think the Yankees might be reluctant to take on a player like Bradley, but honestly, I think this team needs some fire. And he is an excellent defensive player as well, which would allow us to DH Matsui. If we attempt to trade for one of Oakland's other players, Beane is notorious for being difficult to deal with. Cashman does have one advantage: he just needs a hitter, not a fielder.

As far as pitching goes, our rotation is as stable as it's going to be. There are no more solutions out there. Cashman should however immediately look to trade Farnsworth and Myers. Watching both of these guys is like watching the same at-bats on replay. Farnsworth consistently works behind in the count and then grooves fastballs. Myers simply is not good enough to strike out good lefties. And Torre always brings him in against the other teams best lefty hitter. If they don't chase the slider away, he lays an 84 MPH fastball in there and, sidearm or not, it gets crushed. He really only does well in a mop-up role.

The Yanks have Chris Britton (who I have been calling for) and Edwar Ramirez (74 Ks in 40.1 IP???) down in triple-A who can do just as well as those two so we don't even necessarily need to get bullpen pieces back in exchange for them.

Of course our biggest problem is that we are the worst managed team in baseball. But Torre isn't going anywhere until the end of the season, so what's the use.

Phillips Coming Up?

2007-06-19T14:20:00.000-05:00

Pete Abraham is reporting that Andy Phillips is indeed on his way, presumably for Josh Phelps. Phelps is a rule V pickup, meaning we'd have to offer him back to the Orioles for 25k before we can send him to the minors. Something tells me they'll take him. Josh Phelps- it's been fun.

Afraid To Say Too Much

2007-06-19T13:33:00.000-05:00

Honestly, the Yankees have been playing so well the past few weeks I've been afraid to say anything to jinx it. Couple things to note:

Johnny Damon should be done as a Center Fielder. The major problem with Melky Cabrera as a regular player is that a corner outfielder needs to hit for power (why you ask? Well because the average AAA corner outfielder will have some pop, so by having a right or left fielder that hits less than 10 HRs a year is a waste, no matter how many HRs the rest of your team hits). Now center field isn't the same: Melky hits, runs and plays defense well enough for that position. And everyone who follows the Yankees know by now how infectious his enthusiasm is. Damon has the power to play LF or RF (and maybe 1b down the road). For now, DH is fine.
Roger Clemens, despite a tough loss on Friday, has looked good. When all is said and done, the Yankees will pay him approx 18-19 million in salary. Consider this: The Yankees cleared away 18 million in payroll this offseason by jettisoning Randy Johnson (14 million) and Jaret Wright (4 million). Does Roger Clemens for Randy Johnson and Jaret Wright seem like a good trade?
The "A-Rod will opt out" story is getting way overdone at this point. I personally think the best scenario for both A-Rod and the Yankees would be to simply extend his current deal by 2-3 years at 20-26 per. This way the Yankees will continue getting their discount from Texas (and of course keep MLBs best player) while A-Rod will receive the added money that he (read: Scott Boras) wants. This will be A-Rods big chance to gain the respect he craves: if he leaves NY for the money, he will be hated in NY and will forever be labeled as the face of free agent greed. If he stays however, and let's remember he is in the midst of the largest contract in professional sports, the fans would have no choice to accept that A-Rod wants to be a Yankee, in fact loves being a Yankee, and will do whatever it takes to cement his legacy as a winner on the world's greatest stage. You know Boras will want to take him to free agency again, especially if a team like the Giants or White Sox will offer another 200 million. Here's hoping A-Rod stays strong.
Miguel Cairo has looked great over at 1B. That said, for the same reasons Melky Cabrera is a tough choice at this age as a corner outfielder, I imagine the Yankees will look for an option with some more pop (the rumor now is for Shea Hillenbrand). Josh Phelps would seemingly be a fine in house candidate, but his defense is terrible. He is a statue at first base: the average observer might not notice how bad he is because he simply doesn't even attempt to make a lot of plays and many of the catches he botches end up being attributed to the fielder who threw it. Andy Phillips is hitting well at triple-A and could be a good in house candidate. Phillips is a good defender (and he is also serviceable at 2B and 3B) and could hopefully develop some patience in what could be his last chance to be a Yankee. Those calling for Johnny Damon to begin manning 1B, that is likely a project for the offseason.

The Rocket Returns

2007-06-09T15:41:00.000-05:00

Obviously, Clemens' return is the big story today, and rightfully so: quality start, 3 runs over 6 IP. And I thought he pitched a little better than that even, as he didn't have particularly good luck with balls put in play. The biggest stat really is 7 Ks. If he can still strikeout more than a batter an inning he will be effective. Especially when you consider that he's not here to become the Ace. He's here to replace Matt DeSalvo.

Be Careful What You Wish For

2007-06-04T18:53:00.000-05:00

"Did you hear that?: As the Yankees blew a four-run lead in the fifth, Red Sox fans chanted 'Where is Roger?' "

-- ESPN.com news services

PLEASE PITCH BRIAN BRUNEY

2007-05-23T20:49:00.000-05:00

It seemed like Torre finally had gotten the hint- he's been extending his starters longer and using relievers for longer stints and not on multiple nights. Monday against the Red Sox, he got all he could out of Wang then brought Bruney in in a big spot. But after Bruney allowed a walk and a dribbler that became an error (while getting two outs however), Torre brings Proctor in for one out. This was Proctor's third consecutive night pitching. Proctor immediately hits the first batter he faces and is bailed out by a nice play by Cano. The important thing to remember is the Red Sox had yet to get a good swing against Bruney. Someone, soon, needs to sit Joe down, give him a delicious blueberry green tea beverage, and explain one simple thing: BRIAN BRUNEY IS THE BEST MIDDLE RELIEVER ON THE NEW YORK YANKEES.

Bruney's OPS against is .505. To put that in perspective, Melky Cabrera's current OPS this season is .588. So on average, batters facing Bruney are significantly worse than Cabrera has been this season. What other proof does Torre need?

Yanks Still Fighting

2007-05-23T20:29:00.000-05:00

The Yankees, while by no means perfect over the last few games, are encouraging in that they are finally showing some life, amidst what might be one of the most unlucky starts to a season any team has ever encountered. Tuesday night's game versus the Red Sox gave us yet another backbreaking bad call on a steal of second base. Posada once again threw out a runner who was called safe (though this was not nearly as egregious as the Seattle game). And as we know, when a call goes against the Yanks, its ALWAYS comes back to haunt them, as it allowed 3 runs to score, effectively ending the game (though the Yanks did still have some spirited at-bats).

Giambi Not Helping

2007-05-20T20:12:00.000-05:00

The Yankees right now are not a fun team to cheer for. The run of bad luck we've experienced has been catastrophic. I would run down all the things that have happened but it's too depressing.

As if our on the field troubles weren't enough, Giambi went and issued an quasi-admission/apology about steroid use. So now the "Yankees look to terminate Giambi's contract" stories are popping up again.

I like Jason Giambi. He is a special sort of hitter and I enjoy cheering for him, even if people like to call him a cheater (though I don't believe steroids give you a batting eye like that). I would like to see Giambi win a championship as a Yankee. That said, if his contract could be voided, Cashman would have no choice. They currently pay Giambi more than any other player (yes, even A-Rod) and there is no way Giambi is one of the best overall players in baseball. What kills him is he is so injury prone and one-dimensional. He can't field and when he does, he hurts himself. He has bone spurs in his feet right now (where did those come from? He's a DH who walks and hits homeruns. He actually has to run like 4 times a week).

The Yankees are trying to find players who are young and dynamic. Giambi is not.

Unreal

2007-05-09T20:48:00.000-05:00

We're in the top of the 8th right now and Torre has just brought in Kyle Farnsworth in a 6-2 game. Normally this would be all fine and good except that he already used THREE relievers in a 7th inning where the Rangers did NOT score. First off, Bruney was throwing well even if he did allow a bloop hit and a 3-2 walk. Leave him in and he likely finishes the inning fine. Instead we go to Myers to get the lefty. Fine. Follow him with Proctor (who is touching 98!) to strike out the last batter. Now we've got Proctor warmed up, he's throwing hard, he has faced one hitter where he threw approximately 4 pitches. So we take him out for Farnsworth. Win or lose, these are the type of dumb moves that kill our bullpen. Proctor should be allowed to finish the 8th at least. Then you use Farnsworth or Mo (probably Mo) for the 9th. And now Farnsworth is rested for tomorrow's game. Instead we've managed to use all three of our hard throwing setup men (with apologies to Henn, who has been hitting 94 this year). Our starters are improving. Let's not waste it by taxing our bullpen anyways.

Schilling Still Full of Himself

2007-05-09T10:22:00.000-05:00

Curt Schilling, in yet another effort to win the "most detestable athlete of my lifetime" award, called out Barry Bonds as a cheater and said his numbers should be erased from the books (because clearly, that's a plausible solution).

Wait a minute, didn't Schilling appear before congress with the likes of Palmeiro, McGwire and company and have absolutely NOTHING to say?

What a joke.

Disheartening

2007-05-08T12:34:00.000-05:00

There is nothing I despise worse than losing a game because of a blown umpire call. Anyone who saw the game last night, knows that Bloomquist of Seattle was thrown out by 3 feet (and that's not just hyperbole). Does it excuse us stranding so many runners? No, but we still should have won, despite it.

(Picture courtesy of nomaas.org)

The Rocket Returns

2007-05-07T18:28:00.000-05:00

Going into the season, I was fairly confident that Roger Clemens would pitch for the Yankees. I did not expect the entrance he made on Sunday, however. Is this a good move? Well obviously there are lots of people already criticizing the move. It is a lot of money and Roger is almost 45. However, the numbers would suggest that he should be pretty much the same pitcher he was in 2003, especially with an extra month or so of rest.

We're only 5.5 games back of the Red Sox as of this moment, and if we had Clemens, Wang, and Mussina for the 6 games against them earlier, does anyone really think we would have lost 5 of them? The bottom line is we need to make due with DeSalvo, Igawa, or someone else in the 5 hole for one more month. Rasner should fill into the 4 hole admirably.

Imagine a playoff rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Moose, and Clemens with Hughes coming in from the pen? Now we just need to win some games and get there.

I must add however that I found Peter Gammons' article regarding this to be pretty poor. I generally LOVE Gammons, despite his Red Sox leanings. But in his ESPN blog he did nothing but talk about money. Yes I understand the Yankees gave him more money. But money isn't the entire story. It reminds me of when we acquired Bobby Abreu last year. The headline on ESPN read "The Yankees were able to take on Abreu's contract." If Detroit had gotten him (and make no mistake, they were trying) you think the headline would have read as such? Doubtful.

Where is Chris Britton?

2007-05-04T20:25:00.000-05:00

Watching our inability to get outs in the 5th inning, you have to ask, where is Chris Britton? He couldn't help us right now? An established but young hard throwing reliever who posted excellent numbers in the AL East last year? Really?

Addendum: Britton's line for the O's last year?

53 2/3 IP, 20 ERs, 17 BB, 41 Ks, 3.35 ERA. Not bad.

Needed Sweep, Unneeded Bullpen Use

2007-05-04T07:20:00.000-05:00

It was a good day in Texas yesterday and Moose looked sharp in his return. He was removed after only 64 pitches, which would normally be a "What is Torre doing?" moment, but Moose was exhausted since he hasn't pitched in so long and asked out of the game. What is more disconcerting is Torre used 5 pitchers to close out the game, when not ONE of them got roughed up. Torre seems determined to have every reliever get up at some point in every game. Wouldn't it make more sense to try and get more outs from relievers and use them less frequently? What's more taxing on a pitcher: warming up, throwing ten pitches one day then doing the same thing the next or warming up and throwing twenty pitches then having the next day off? It's one thing if its a huge game and you need to play match-ups, but it's May. And for the record, Torre doesn't even play match-ups all that well. For instance, how does he have clearly fatigued Scott Proctor facing Ortiz and Ramirez in big spots two games in a row? I know its fun to hear Jon Miller on ESPN howl with delight as he calls out Ramirez's stats versus Proctor, but come on.

I think going into every game, there should be one reliever who Torre says "unless this game goes to extra innings, I'm not using him." Whether its Proctor, Farnsworth, Bruney, whoever (Mike Myers doesn't count. And for that matter, neither does Carl Pavano). Buster Olney reported that one reliever said in confidentiality that he thinks he is going to suffer a serious injury pitching for Torre, and you can't blame any one of them for saying such a thing. This is really a pretty tragic situation, especially for Proctor and Bruney. These are young pitchers still on their minor league contracts, meaning they are making something like 300-350k per year. Great salary for playing a game, true, but they are grossly underpaid by baseball standards. Every baseball player wants to have at least one big contract during his career. I don't mean A-Rod 252 million big, but big as in multiple millions of dollars. Used correctly, Proctor and Bruney should end up with ERAs below 3.50 and great strikeout rates. When a relief pitcher of such caliber reaches the open market, they're worth a 3 year/12 million dollar deal easy. But these guys get inflated ERAs thanks to their inflated number of appearances. And of course GMs will know they've been overworked and their arms are a risk. So while Joe sits there and collects his 7 mil for sleeping on the bench, he's costing young players their shot at job security.

What A Roller Coaster

2007-05-02T07:43:00.000-05:00

Phil Hughes was absolutely dominating last night. His fastball explodes and his curve starts at the hitter's eyes and ends at their feet. His changeup is probably only an average pitch, but seems better because of the other two.

I really thought he had a shot at a no-hitter. No one had yet really put a good swing on him; in fact only 3 balls had gotten out of the infield.

The hamstring injury is bad and incredibly disappointing. 4-6 weeks will most likely be close to 8 meaning he won't start his rehab assignments until the beginning of July. If he is back in the big leagues that month it would be best case really.

In better news, the A's got to Papelbon last night. I still don't think Papelbon will survive as a closer. He puts too much into every pitch. The closers that last (Rivera, Hoffman, hell even Wickman and Todd Jones) do not. Though at the same time, K-Rod has had that kind of intensity and shows no signs of wearing down. Either way, I am interested to see if Papelbon once again in August becomes Papelbum Shoulder.

A-Rod = Beast

2007-04-17T21:13:00.000-05:00

Is there anyone you would rather have at the plate at ANY time during the game right now than Alex Rodriguez?

Chase Wright did what he needed to tonight. I don't know if he has the stuff to stick and I'm scared throwing him to the Fenway dogs this weekend. But for now? Good work.

Opening Day Reaction

2007-04-03T15:04:00.000-05:00

Carl Pavano: Not terrible. I know normally you'd say 5 runs over 4 1/3 is terrible. And in the context of a single game, it is. But we're talking about a guy who hasn't pitched in a major league game since June 2005. He just doesn't have the endurance right now, which is why Joe didn't let him go more than 75 pitches. Hopefully as he builds strength, he'll improve. Also, it didn't help that the defense cost him a couple times.
A-Rod: Couldn't help but say "here we go again" after that first inning. He ended up having a fine game, though after Abreu knocked in the game clinching run, I said to myself A-Rod's gonna blast one here, everyone will say it's a meaningless homer, and Mo will lose the save opportunity. And immediately he absolutely crushed the first pitch he saw, one down and in. I think the most puzzling thing about A-Rod is he really doesn't have any holes. I've seen him destroy pitches in every part of the strike zone. But yet he still has at bats where he just suddenly looks over-matched. This should never be the case. On the plus side, the complaints about his opening day homerun have been limited.
This game could be the blueprint for the Yankees this year. Get as much as we can from our starter, wear down the opponents starter, then beat them with our bullpen. Once we pulled Pavano, the bullpen completely shut down the Devil Rays, and we didn't even have to use Proctor. For once I agree with Torre's heavy use of the pen on this one. Off day the next day, Pavano not yet in shape to pitch deep into a game, knowing if we keep it close our offense will destroy Tampa's pen.
Mariano Rivera was absolutely untouchable. 13 pitches, 3 Ks, not one ball put in play. He moved the ball in all directions. The poor Devil Ray hitters didn't have a chance. Cash: sign him. Please. Just give him whatever he wants. (2 year, 22 million extension, 12 million team option for '10?) Of course I write the previous paragraph with extreme trepidation, since I don't want to jinx the sandman.
Curt Schilling got rocked by the Royals. I have no further analysis. But he is awfully fat and he is probably my most hated player. So I'm happy.

Who Cares About Steroids, Redux

2007-03-20T12:33:00.000-05:00

I rewrote my steroids post for a journalism class I'm taking:

At some point this summer Barry Bonds will likely hit the 756th home run of his major league career, passing Henry Aaron as the all-time home run king. Many fans consider this the most hallowed record in all of sports. The public outcry is and will be immense. Barry Bonds is a cheater in the court of public opinion because of his connection with the BALCO steroid scandal. Whether or not Bonds is truly morally disreputable and whether there should be an asterisk placed next to his record are both debatable issues; convincing arguments will be lobbied for both sides. But really, given the nature of both steroids and records in today's game, should we care?

The home run record is important to baseball because it was the defining record of the game's defining player: Babe Ruth. Ruth revolutionized the game; he made it important. And how did he do it? Simply by hitting home runs. In 1920, Babe Ruth hit 54 home runs, his first year playing for the New York Yankees. That year the Philadelphia Phillies, playing in perhaps the major's most home run-friendly park, hit 64. Ruth out-homered every other team. To put this in perspective, it would be the equivalent of a player hitting more than 200 home runs today. This is an important thing to understand because it speaks to the underlying issue: players can only be judged against their contemporaries. Ruth's stats transcend the current game.

This being said, when Aaron hit his 715th homer to pass Babe Ruth, it was still immensely important. But not because we could say definitively that Aaron was the greatest home run hitter to ever live. Not only is this a subjective statement, but one that is easily contradicted by the stats I've previously mentioned. Aaron was a black athlete playing a game dominated by white athletes. For years, including during Ruth's career, black players were not allowed in the major leagues. Aaron's overtaking the record did not ensure that blacks would have an equal stake in the game. But it did ensure that African American athletes could not be ignored. That the civil rights movement was underway in America at the same time is no coincidence. As such, Aaron's home run was a special moment where sports helped to reflect our culture.

Bonds in a similar way will reflect his era. He represents the evolution of the game: stronger players and bigger numbers. With or without steroids, both of those trends were bound to increase with improvements in strength training and increased fan interest in statistical production, particularly home runs. It is important to note that these trends are predicated on what we as fans want. Our understanding of steroids is limited. They are considered unnatural, but much of what we do to our bodies is. They provide an unfair competitive advantage; but of course so does growing up in a wealthy household. All advantages are unfair; otherwise they wouldn't be advantages. Steroids are illegal primarily because they are destructive to your body but newer drugs, such as human growth hormone, may not be harmful at all. It seems arbitrary what substances are ethical when so many things on both ends of the spectrum can help your athletic performance and hurt your long term health.

What we should really be worried about right now is that close to a billion dollars will be spent investigating steroid use in baseball by our government, when we know that there are no answers to be found outside of players confessions. And judging from history, those confessions will be very hard to come by. So when Bonds does hit that historic home run this summer, there is no need to be angry. He is a great player playing in an age of advanced training that we do not fully comprehend. The records he holds are not necessary to validate this, much like they will not validate his superiority to players of the past. Records are interesting sports stories but they have never truly proved anything.

A-Rod

2007-03-16T10:01:00.000-05:00

The whole A-Rod issue has gotten so ridiculous I don't think I can even comment on it coherently any longer. Anyone who reads anything in the media about his Mike and the Mad Dog interview: go and listen to it. I implore you. The way that the media picks little quotes out and twists them is both infuriating and sickening. And quite frankly makes me wonder about sports media and its true value. A-Rod in the interview is honest and personable and actually makes me excited to cheer for him this year and confident he will make great strides.

A-Rod Can't Win, Again

2007-02-21T20:11:00.000-05:00

The current media buzz for the "A-Rod/Jeter rift" is probably one of the most nonsensical media story/non-stories I've ever heard. I've listened now for two days as various radio and TV talk show hosts scream about how A-Rod needs to shut up and how he is causing trouble. Well, the knock on A-Rod has been that he is disingenuous when speaking with the media and always gives out prepackaged answers. Well this time, he said that rather than giving everyone the same "Jeet and I are still best friends" garbage, he'd just tell the truth. Because we all know they're not best friends so we then assume that they must be fighting. Truth is, they're not great friends, but they get along, support each other as teammates, and want each other to succeed. Now what, I beg of you, is wrong with that statement? Does it mean that A-Rod and Jeter don't like each other? NO. Hell, A-Rod is married, Jeter is single. Is it really newsworthy that they don't hang out all the time? So I guess A-Rod should just go back to giving the prepackaged, media-friendly answers. They're media friendly for a reason.

In actual BASEBALL related A-Rod news, he's come to camp 12 lbs lighter and says he plans to focus on his fielding and his running game. I think this is great. He didn't need to add all that muscle to hit homeruns. In fact, it might have hurt him overall. (Of course is he just slimming down so he can move back to short with another team when he opts out at the end of this year? Um... forget I said anything.)

More good baseball news: rumor is Schilling is grossly out of shape. Stay tuned.

Pitchers of 2007

2007-02-17T17:01:00.000-05:00

The Starters:

1. Chien-Ming Wang. By the end of last year, you got the feeling the Yankees would win any time Wang took the mound. And that's pretty much the definition of a stopper. Stat-heads insist Wang is due for a regression, primarily due to his extremely low strikeout rates. But the bottom line is that despite throwing 97+, Wang is not a strikeout pitcher. Really, if he stays healthy, Wang should only get better. And that means lots and lots of groundballs and dead worms in front of home plate.

2. Mike Mussina. Mussina, as I've mentioned before, was probably the steal of the offseason in terms of contracts. As we're seeing right now with the Pavano situation, he's a team leader, and most importantly rarely has a terrible start. The development of his 70mph changeup allows him to be effective when his fastball is off and dominant when it's on.

3. Andy Pettitte. Hard not to be excited about the return of "Big-Game Andy." While I thoroughly support the Yankees pitching youth movement, it is still nice to have proven experience. And at 34, Pettitte is hardly ancient. Of course because of Andy's return, he'll probably be dogged with Clemens questions all season.

4. Carl Pavano. I'm optimistic Pavano pitches this season. And really that's all we need him to do. If he is healthy, he is certainly at least fourth starter material. Many people are calling for Pavano to be traded but his value is at rock bottom right now. Let's see him start a few games first.

5. Kei Igawa. Everything I've read about Kei, I like. He's a pretty funny guy. Can he pitch?

The Bullpen:

1. Mariano Rivera. Though at this point he should probably just have his name changed to The Incomparable Mariano Rivera. I actually had a nightmare a couple weeks back that Mo had signed with the Colorado Rockies. I woke up completely terrified. Then a few days later the papers are filled with his contract issues. Normally I think Cashman is right to wait until a contract is up before negotiating a new one. But this is the only case where I disagree. Even if Mo has a terrible year or is hurt all year, he will still get a fairly lucrative 1 or 2 year offer from someone, because the probability of him bouncing back will be high. The Yankees HAVE to match whatever is offerred to him. Unless they want me to tear Yankee stadium to the ground brick by brick with my bare hands. So therefore, Mo is going to get paid roughly the same amount no matter his performance in 2007. So just sign the most important baseball player of my lifetime to an extension and let everyone rest easy.

2. Kyle Farnsworth. This is a pivotal year for Farnsworth. His 2006 was up and down. I supported Cashman signing him and I still feel somewhat vindicated in my support. Gordon commanded more money and was spotty and his arm may come flying off with any pitch. Farnsworth just has to learn to throw more strikes and attack the zone now that he's in the AL East.

3. Scott Proctor. I was telling everyone who would listen at the beginning of last year that Proctor should be given a shot in the bullpen. Once Joe finally realized that Tanyon Sturtze isn't very good, Proctor got his shot and never looked back. He tired at points last year and said he could hear a clicking in his elbow, which will happen when you make a league leading 238 appearances. But he's been checked out and should be healthy. I sent Joe a copy of my new book How To Effectively Use a Major League Bullpen. I hope he got it.

4. Jose Viscaino. I've never seen Viscaino pitch. From what I've heard, he's a workhorse, which you have to be in a Torre 'pen. I also heard he's good against lefties, despite being a righty. Not to harp on the Torre can't use his bullpen thing, but we had Felix Rodriguez a few years back who has similar splits. And Torre never figured out how to use him.... so we'll see.

5. Mike Myers. Having such an extreme lefty specialist seems like a waste. And it also seems like Myers never gets anyone out, even if his numbers say otherwise.

6. Brian Bruney. Bruney was nasty when he came over midseason from Arizona. Another guy who can throw 96+ and help take pressure off Farnsworth and Proctor. Let's hope he can keep it up.

7. Jeff Karstens / Ron Villone. This spot is for the long man. Karstens was an admirable fill in as a starter last year and would be nice to have around. Villone was a solid guy out of the pen, can get out lefties, and can act as longman. That versatility probably gives him the edge. (Though an interesting aside- the Yankees had offerred Villone arbitration but he declined. If Villone had signed with another team, they would have forfeited a draft pick to the Yanks. I think Cashman wanted a high pick for Villone but no one would sign him because they didn't want to give up the pick. Would he have been out of a job this year if the Yanks hadn't finally signed him? Would the current draft pick compensation system put him out of work even though he is good enough to setup for many teams?)

Spring Training Finally

2007-02-12T20:56:00.000-05:00

While NYC is still waiting for its first significant snowfall, spring training is about to kick off down in Tampa. I am always optimistic when the season starts, like most fans. I was even able to convince myself in 2005 that Jaret Wright could win 15 games (though only because of the lineup behind him). This year is the best one in awhile though I think. Finally, there are no Yankees that I have to talk myself into liking (Randy Johnson, Jaret Wright, Tony Womack, Gary Sheffield, A-Rod... oh wait(just joking. More on A-rod in a minute)). I love the signings, I love the kids who are waiting in the wings, and I love that JD Drew should make A-Rod look like Thurmon Munson. ($70 million? Really? After you said you couldn't take on Abreu's $24 million?)

So who will be the lucky 25 wearin pinstripes when the season starts? Here's my guess, position by position, followed by my rediculously optimistic opinion on what I expect from them this year. (Just going to go through the position players today though.)

1. CF Johnny Damon. If he can avoid those nickel and dime injuries that tend to slow him down, could be primed for a big year, especially power wise. That short porch could have him nearing 30HRs soon. Most importantly, hopefully this year he can bring some passion to a clubhouse that has lost numerous cantankerous personalities. (Also notable- did you know Damon was born in Kansas? Who would have guessed?)

2. SS Derek Jeter. Coming off an MVP(calibur) season, really we could just hope for more of the same. And I think we'll at least get close. If nothing else, I'm sure he'll be a more productive player than Justin Morneau once again. (Okay, last "Jeter should have been the 2005 MVP" complaint. I don't want to sound like Red Sox fans after 2005. Though while we're here- worthwhile rant: David Ortiz should not be the MVP unless he puts up numbers that are head and shoulders better than everyone else and borderline historic (60-70 HRs, .500 OBP, etc). A-rod was arguably a better hitter in 2005 (he led in more important categories). The whole "you can't penalize Ortiz because he doesn't play defense, it's not his fault" argument is perhaps the most moronic thing ever. How is it not his fault? He is TERRIBLE at defense. Let's give the MVP to Tony Womack. It's not his fault he sucks.)

3. RF Bobby Abreu. Aka, the rich man's JD Drew.

4. 3B Alex Rodriguez. There is a tremendous article over on noMass.org (it's on the left, "Decline of the Sports guy") showing how A-Rod's postseason numbers stack up against other great players. People forget, in 2004, A-Rod CARRIED the Yankees past Minnesota. Then he clubbed the Red Sox along with the rest of the Yankees during the first 3 games of the ALCS. Has he had some failures since? Well sure. But they are hardly as epic as people think. This has turned into an almost self fulfulling prophecy- it wasn't until 2006 that I felt like A-Rod really couldn't produce in big spots. Hopefully Torre will just stop coddling him and he'll suck it up and get back to being the player he was. And is.

All the talk of A-rod opting out after the year? If I'm Cashman, I'm not sweating it. His contract is currently reasonable so if he stays, great. If he leaves? Invest his money in Mark Texiera, trade for Joe Crede, and we're ready to roll.

5. DH Jason Giambi. I felt good about Giambi until I read at baseball-reference.com that his career path most resembles Mo Vaughn (Though then I remembered that while it is true that Giambi is a lumbering beast, he is also incredibly muscular. Who most resembles Mo Vaughn's figure? Red Sox fans should know...). But seriously, if Giambi can keep from wearing down, he is a monster in the middle of this lineup, even if his days as a doubles hitter seem to be over. Even when he's slumping, he has an OBP of .400.

6. LF Hideki Matsui. Professional hitter. Should bounce back well from injury considering his amazing work ethic.

7. C Jorge Posada. Had his best year defensively last year and was solid as always at the plate (his OBP and power from the catcher position over the years is amazing). Two years ago people were nervous about him playing too many games so he'd vest his 2007 salary. Now we should be talking extension. There is no one coming through the system and there are arguably only a few catcher's in baseball more productive. And none of them will be FAs.

8. 2B Robinson Cano. Obviously everyone is very high on Cano. And with good reason. Lightning quick bat, puts a ton of balls in play, which actually complements our OBP guys well. Torre would be well served to keep him batting down here though. He's still only 23 and despite almost winning a batting title, he did not have an amazing OBP. Better to protect him for another season.

9. 1B Doug Mientkiewicz. See my previous post.

Util 1. Melky Cabrera. The Melkman might be the best reserve OF in baseball. And he should find himself plenty of playing time this year. When he plays, his energy is infectious. The Yankees seem to find a way to win.

Util 2. Josh Phelps. Nice Rule V pickup by Cash. I think he beats out Andy Phillips for the right-handed 1B spot. I like Andy, I just don't think he's going to cut it.

Util 3. Miguel Cairo. We know what Cairo can do. His value always transcends his numbers.

Util 4. A backup catcher. I'm not making a prediction on this one. Todd Pratt and Wil Nieves are the leading candidates heading in, though anything could happen. I wouldn't mind seeing a real cannon behind the plate, but then again it would be nice to have a sub for Jorge that can occasionally get a hit. I'd take defense first though, if forced to choose.

Back later with the pitchers, coaches, and prospects of 2007.

Can Mientkiewicz Hit?

2007-02-09T11:41:00.000-05:00

The Yankees signing of Doug Mientkiewicz didn't make many headlines, understandably. I argued in this place that the Yankees should have signed Mark Loretta (who signed with Houston to be a utilityman - how no one could use him as a starter is beyond me) but Mientkiewicz was my second choice, so I can live with it. The one phrase that I keep hearing though when Mientkiewicz is discussed, is "offensively - challenged." I seem to remember him being a batting title contender at one point so I thought I'd look into just how poor a hitter Mientkiewicz is. The following list compiles his BA, OBP, OPS since he became a regular in 2001.

2001: .306, .387, .851
2002: .261, .365, .757
2003: .300, .393, .843
2004: (Min) .246, .340, .703
2004: (Bos) .215, .286, .604
2005: .240, .322, .729
2006: .283, .359, .770

So clearly in 2001 and 2003 Mientkiewicz COULD hit. And get on base. While it is true at no time did he hit really for power (2001 15HRs and .464 SLG being his career highs) the Yankees of course don't need him to. Mientkiewicz's worst seasons were 2004 and 2005, both of which saw him with limited ABs. In 2006 his stat line improved, though he again missed time with injury. His career line of .270, .359, and .764 is pretty close to what he did last year. At age 32, Mientkiewicz isn't so old that his production should be slipping drastically. If (and of course this is always the big if) he stays healthy, it is reasonable to expect similar numbers. So really, best case, Mientkiewicz should provide average to above average on base ability, below average power, and above average defense (and also worth noting- he is difficult to strikeout). We know he is an asset defensively; but if he gets on base at roughly a .360 clip (which is better than the league average) he will score runs in this powerful Yankee lineup. Andy Phillips' OBP last year? .281.

Who Cares About Steroids?

2007-02-01T11:37:00.000-05:00

The steroid issue has been at the forefront of baseball for awhile now and it doesn't look like it will soon change with Barry Bonds on the cusp of passing Hank Aaron for the all-time homerun record. Finding steroid users (or users of any sort of "performance enhancing drug") in baseball has become a massive witch-hunt. One thing that fans and media members seem to overlook is that the difference between substances that are performance enhancing drugs and provide an "unfair" advantage versus substances that are "fair" is not (and should not be) clear.

What exactly is an "unfair" advantage? Why are steroids, a drug with a myriad of health risks, unfair? People are quick to site all of the players who have broke down (or worse) because of steroid use. So exactly what advantage do steroid users have? How often does it produce a better baseball player? I'm not necessarily saying that it doesn't... I'm just asking if this is a question that anyone has bothered to explore.

The government, along with MLB, is launching a series of investigations (most noticeably the Mitchell investigation) regarding steroid use in baseball. So essentially, millions of taxpayer's dollars are being spent to try to find out whether some players of a GAME did something that MAY be cheating despite the fact that this information is generally assumed to be unprovable. Millions of taxpayer dollars. I repeat that... because, well, it warrants repeating.

In the NFL this year, star linebacker Shawne Merriman was suspended for steroid use. (Ironically enough, the week following ESPN aired a nauseating puff story on his miraculous rise from homeless person to NFL star.) No one seems to care that we know, concretely, that a star player in football IS USING STEROIDS. If Albert Pujols failed a steroid test he would be reviled and declared a cheater. Shawne Merriman? Well he's just a good football player apparently.

These sportswriters, fans, and government officials need to step down off their high horses. How about the MLB player who grew up in a privileged environment and always had access to the best equipment, trainers, and supplements? This is a fair advantage? For the record, I think it is unfair- because ALL advantages are unfair. Otherwise they wouldn't be advantages.

I know in America we like to live by certain ideals when it comes to sports. We think there is a distinct difference between "God given talent" and... well... anything else. Our bodies consist of numerous chemical reactions. We manipulate these every day, with what we put into our bodies, be it food, vitamins, drugs, etc. It is naive to think that some ways of changing our bodies is clearly right while others are clearly wrong.

So am I rooting for Bonds to pass Aaron? No. But not because Bonds took steroids. But because Bonds is an asshole.

I am, however, rooting for Giambi to hit 74 homeruns this year.

Goodbye Bernie?

2007-01-24T12:07:00.000-05:00

Every few days an article goes up in the NY papers wondering if we have seen the last of Bernie Williams as a New York Yankee. It would seem to me that the answer is yes. Overall is Bernie still as good a player as most bench players? Well, of course, probably better. But what kills Bernie is that at this point in his career there isn't one thing he does really well. His best contribution would be as a right-handed pinch hitter. What the Yankees really need from their bench players though, is defense and baserunning. Bernie cannot offer that.

There is often mention that there will be room for Bernie if Melky is traded. It would be horribly shortsighted to trade away Melky, who at this point can do essentially everything better than Bernie, just to give Bernie one last hurrah. I don't foresee Cashman making such a move.

Of course, if we can find 400ABs for Melky this year, is it possible we could use a 5th OF? Yes possible... but again, we'd probably want a defensive specialist who can run. So maybe Bernie will have no choice but to suck it up and get working on that 2nd album.

Cano Changes His Number

2007-01-24T12:04:00.000-05:00

Robinson Cano will officially be #24 next season. Apparently he approached the Yankees equipment people and said he wanted to have the reverse of Jackie Robinson's number. Of course, this immediately led to stories that the Yankees are getting #22 ready for Roger Clemens. Which they may be. I currently think the odds of Rocket coming back to NY are a little better than half (say 50-60%).

Colts - Patriots

2007-01-22T23:14:00.000-05:00

The Colts - Patriots game on Sunday night did not disappoint. It was probably the most exciting football game I watched all year. I was going to write a post comparing this game to the 2004 ALCS but the Sports Guy beat me to it. But one thing that I think is similar that hasn't been noted- I can't help but feel that Patriots fans are saying to themselves now "So everyone finally got what they wanted. You happy?" Everyone always picks Manning and the Colts to win. Everyone outside of New England cheers for the Colts. But I have to admit, when Brady threw that final interception, it still took me a minute to believe the Colts really had won.

So now we get a Bears - Colts superbowl, with the Colts the obvious choice to win in a rout, which if you've been paying attention, means the Bears should win. Though the whole "Peyton Manning gets his first Super Bowl" angle may counter that.

All that aside however, the most important aspect of this is that maybe we've got a new trend here- similar to the probable underdogs. Players who are perceived as unable to come through in the clutch- do. Which of course is good news for A-Rod and bad news for sportswriters in NY. (Of course the idea that A-Rod cannot handle pressure situations is a media idea that unfortunately BECAME true after it was publicized. But that's a whole different issue.)

The Probable Underdog

2007-01-10T13:06:00.000-05:00

I don't like cheering for underdogs. Quite simply, I don't like improbable stories, million to one odds, or lovable losers. So of course that makes this a poor time to be a sports fan. The favorite fails so often now that they are essentially the underdog. Last week's Ohio State / Florida matchup again proved this. When members of the media were assuming an Ohio State victory, often by a large margin, it became apparent that Florida would win.

My anti-underdog leanings almost certainly stem from my passion for the Yankees. I was forcefed Red Sox "underdog" stories for years. Somehow the team with the second largest payroll, playing in the largest market with only one team, was treated like they were the team from "Major League." The Yankees were (and are) the Evil Empire, who goes out and lures other teams best players with offers of immense wealth. They lack homegrown talent. Like Pedro, Manny, Ortiz, and Keith Foulke. But I digress.

At the Masters I found myself cheering against Phil Mickelson. And let's get one thing straight, I have absolutely NO interest in golf. NONE. But I didn't want the floodgates to open up for those who "never won the big won." And what happened? The Red Sox, Roy Williams, the White Sox...
And now it's evolved into just the underdog in general. Last year Texas over USC. The Steelers winning the super bowl as a 6th seed. Then in baseball the ultimate underdog World Series. During the second half of the season, the two WORST teams in MLB? The Tigers and the Cardinals. Both teams almost had collapses of epic proportion. So naturally they wound up playing each other in the World Series. And of course, the Cardinals won, the team that was the unanimously agreed upon as the worst team in the playoffs. In the American League, the Cardinals don't make the playoffs. They don't finish ahead of the Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, Rangers, Blue Jays, and probably the Indians as well. The American League is superior to the National League and this fact is provable through every conceivable statistic. Except of course the World Series champion. Which in theory should be the most important stat.

So what am I getting at? No one (outside St. Louis) thinks the Cardinals were the best team last year. Even AFTER they won the World Series. Doesn't that make the whole thing seem kind of fruitless and cheap? After you win your sport's championship, you should be considered the best. If not, then what is the point of the playoffs? Does this devalue past and future champions? We spend time analyzing these games and predicting things when it seems that its all random anyways. And I guess that's really the problem. The feeling that in the playoffs (especially in baseball) you just have to get lucky. Which completely devalues everything about being an avid fan.

Goodbye Randy

2007-01-09T13:26:00.000-05:00

The night the Yankees were eliminated by the Tigers, I still remember having a somewhat gin soaked conversation with fellow fans about what we needed to do next. We came to the general consensus that the following players needed to go: Randy Johnson, Jaret Wright, Gary Sheffield, and Alex Rodriguez. Cashman has now successfully jettisoned 3 of those 4. A-Rod has a no trade clause and doesn't want to go anywhere, but from what I've read Cashman did at least inquire as to whether or not he would waive it (and Jason Giambi as well).

When Jaret Wright and Randy Johnson's names were brought up, everyone subsequently groaned that we'd never be able to trade them. I argued that surely if we ate enough of Randy Johnson's contract, someone would take him on. Well turns out, not only did we have to eat less than 2 million, we actually got some prospects back in return and a quality arm for the bullpen.

Randy Johnson was not a terrible pitcher the past 2 years. He won 34 games and each season logged over 200 innings. His ERA of 5.00 last year though would indicate he was a below average pitcher and he did lead the majors in run support. To his credit, his strikeout and hits per inning show that his ERA was partially a result of terrible luck, and having watched most of his starts, I agree to an extent. It seemed like (and in fact was the case) that most baserunners who got on against the unit came around to score. The hits he gave up were always at the most inopportune time. This is probably not entirely Randy's fault; however you do get the sense that something about the unit in pinstripes wasn't working.

And this leads to the real reason why Randy Johnson had to be traded: on a team like the Yankees that is trying to meld lots of talent (and the egos that comes with it), an introverted clubhouse personality like RJs just wasn't cutting it. You never got the sense that any other player particularly liked playing with him nor did he care about who he played with. It has been chronicled that he stared down Johnny Damon after Damon made an attempt to rally the team in the locker room. Johnson needs to go somewhere where he can simply worry about himself and his own personal quest towards 300 wins. I think that it's best summed up: Yankee players want to beat Randy Johnson and our fans want to boo him. It's how it's meant to be.

Immediately after the Johnson trade was announced, the question became how will the Yankees replace him? First the rumor was they were freeing up money for Zito (and this perhaps caused the Giants to panic and give him $126 million). Cashman wouldn't have gone after Zito at that price even if we had zero starters signed. Now focus has turned towards Roger Clemens. Clemens might just end up back in pinstripes. But really that has nothing to do with why Randy Johnson was traded. You ask how do you replace Randy Johnson? Well looking at his numbers, you go out and find a league average pitcher. Will that be Igawa? Pavano? Who knows. But getting some more young talent, shedding 14 million in payroll, and improving the clubhouse makes this deal an easy decision for the Yanks. For the Diamondbacks? Sure it seems crazy... but then again, we saw what Weaver and Suppan did in the NL.

Loretta at First?

2006-12-19T22:06:00.000-05:00

Since the beginning of the offseason I've hoped the Yanks would consider former Boston 2b Mark Loretta for our first baseman opening, especially when it seemed that no one had much interest in him. He is a good fielder and as a hitter, he is very tough to strike out and sees a lot of pitches. Most importantly, he is right handed, and the Yankees currently have a very lefty heavy lineup.

Well Buster Olney is reporting today that the Yankees made contact with Loretta on Monday. He praises the idea as well, for similar reasons as I just listed. It has also been reported that the Yankees are talking to Doug Mientkiewicz. While he is a great fielder, he's left handed and not as versatile as Loretta (who could sub for any infield spot, especially 2b).

Neither choice is bad, but I think at this point that I'm pulling for Loretta. He's played in the NY-Boston rivalry (and performed well). Reportedly he was asking only 1yr 2million to return to the Padres. The only other place he's been linked to is a utility role in Cincinnati. NY can give him more playing time and we all know 2 million is change in the Yankee universe.

Thus far Cashman has made every move that I would have (though while making me happy personally, I will concede I have very little experience as a Major League GM). I'm hoping this continues with Loretta. I feel like if this was the Yankees circa 2 years ago we'd have gotten Zito and/or Schmidt and Sexson or Hillenbrand for 1b.

Other news:

- Kei Igawa reportedly has signed a 5 yr 20 million dollar deal. That's an annual value of 4 million, which is extremely cheap for the Yankees, especially when you consider Farnsworth makes more than that. You'd have to figure in years 3-5 of this deal, Igawa will be making a standard relievers salary. Which makes this a good risk. If he ends up merely being a bullpen piece, the Yanks can stomach it, and if he ends up being a quality starter, they get a steal.

The Yankees rotation could potentially have three left handed starters. This is good of course considering the lack of left handed pitching in the league and the dimensions of Yankee stadium. Also worth noting: Red Sox had a losing record versus lefties last year.

- There is a rumor floating around about the Yanks potentially trading Melky Cabrera for Mike Gonzalez. I think Gonzalez is nasty, but considering how unreliable relief pitchers can be, I'd be loathe to trade away a young outfielder (22) with Melky's toolset. Even if it means the end of Bernie Williams. At this point, the only thing Bernie can probably do better than Melky is swing the bat right handed. Melky has patience, a good glove, and good speed. And considering the age of our OF, the 4th OF spot should be very important.

MSG Has Life Again

2006-12-17T19:02:00.000-05:00

What has been another depressing, frustrating, and utterly soul-crushing season for the New York Knicks finally became interesting last night. I'm sure everyone has seen the brawl at this point, but a few initial reactions:

- Why fight Nate Robertson? The 5' 7" jacked guy? Win or lose and you still embarrass yourself.

- Jared Jeffries is insane. And he might have the worst teeth in professional sports (since, ya know, hockey doesn't count). That new $30 million dollar contract not enough to afford some dental work Jared?

- What does it say about Isiah Thomas that helping to incite a brawl is the best thing he has accomplished all season?

- The New York Knicks team salary is almost 140 million for this season. I know that has nothing to do with the brawl, but still.

Pettitte Signs with Yankees

2006-12-08T20:43:00.000-05:00

Well Andy Pettitte is back. I post this picture because that will always be my favorite memory of Andy- staring intensely from just below his brim. And it is also the reason why I think he is back with the Yanks: he is a competitor. He thrives off being in a place like NY.

Reports are saying Houston offerred 14 million (or 12 depending on who you believe). Essentially it's being said that he would have remained in Houston if they had offerred him $2 million more. I am skeptical about this for a couple reasons. 1. He took less money to go to the Astros to begin with because he wanted to pitch at home (people forget, the Red Sox offerred him $54 million last time he was a FA). 2. Back in 2003 the Yankees offer was technically worth more money; however it was less money to Pettitte because of NY taxes. So a difference of 2 million would pretty much be offset by this again, right? 3. The Astros seriously wouldn't bettter their offer by a mere $2 million when they threw $100 million at Carlos Lee? Really?

I'm eager to hear more about this, perhaps from Pettitte himself. But seems to me Pettitte WANTS to be back in NY. If he didn't, he could have gotten comparable money from the Astros, any way you want to look at it.

At any rate, he's a Yankee, and I see our opening day rotation looking like this:

1. Wang
2. Moose
3. Pettitte
4. Pavano
5. Igawa

I don't think Randy Johnson will be ready by then. And I think if Pavano CAN pitch, he will be given precedence over Igawa because... well I think that's what Torre will do. Plus it breaks up the lefties. If Pavano finds a new body part to break or Igawa turns out to be a bust, Johnson should be ready soon and Karstens should be available.

- In other news, I read that Ron Villone is holding out for 2 years/6 million. This is a reasonable demand considering the current market. However the Yankees really hold all the leverage in this one. They offerred him arbitration which means that if another teams signs him they would lose a high draft pick to the Yankees. I bet there's a team out there that would give Villone 2 years and 10 million if not for the draft pick. Teams have plenty of money to spend. They do not however have a surplus of young talent. And they need draft picks to aquire that. So the Yankees can't lose here. They either get Villone back at a good price or receive a draft pick and rely on one of their young arms or excess starters to go to the pen.

Personally I wouldn't mind seeing Villone back. He was great the first half of the year when Torre didn't want to use him. Then Torre started using him everyday until he eventually he broke down and got rocked. Anyone else noticing a theme here (see: Proctor, Gordon, Sturtze, Farnsworth, Mendoza, etc etc.). Can't the Yankees just invest in a coach that will manage the bullpen for Joe?

Lilly Signs With Cubs

2006-12-06T20:49:00.000-05:00

Well I'm glad I went through the trouble of writing about Ted Lilly. He's a Cub, for the price of 4 years and 40 million. So looks like it's Pettitte or no one, as far as free agent pitchers go. And as I've said, both outcomes are fine.

Yanks Looking at Lefties

2006-12-06T19:14:00.000-05:00

In the beginning of the free agent signing period I really only felt comfortable going after two free agents: Andy Pettitte and Ted Lilly. Apparently Brian Cashman agrees with me, because those are the two pitchers the Yanks are being linked to. Of course, now that they have Igawa in the fold (or presumably will, once they iron out the contract) it really isn't necessary for Cashman to sign any other pitchers. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I think Pavano will pitch next season and be somewhat effective. I have less optimism about Randy Johnson. I see the Yankees bringing him along slowly, hoping for a solid 20 starts out of him in the 2nd half of the year (similar to Roger Clemens last year). They still have Karstens, Hughes, and Sanchez, none of which I would mind seeing get a shot. Though the old adage is probably true: you can never have too much pitching.

Pros of signing Lilly: Seems to pitch better in big games (especially against Red Sox), pitches well in Yankee Stadium and pitched well in previous stint with Yanks, is a lefty who should be good for 200+ innings a year.

Cons of Lilly: Really not a top of the rotation guy and should be worth 2-3 yrs at 6-8 per. But he will likely cost the Yanks 4 yrs at 10+.

Pros of Pettitte: Exactly the same as Lilly except has had much more success as a Yankee (obviously) though has less durability. Also will probably only command a 1-2 year deal.

Cons of Pettitte: Injury concerns as well as concerns over whether or not he has the passion for baseball anymore. Though if he agrees to return to the Yankees, it's been speculated that it would be due to his desire to get back in a competitive atmosphere.

So really I don't think the Yanks can go wrong here either way, as long as they don't give out too onerous of a contract. We need to make sure we don't block Hughes, Sanchez, Karstens, Clippard, Chamberlain, Kennedy, etc. Of course, Johnson is gone next year and Moose and Pavano both have only two years left, not to mention prospects like I mentioned are rarely the sure thing.

The Yankees have also been connected to Richie Sexson, which I have mixed feelings about. He would be a seemingly great complement to our lefty hitting lineup, but we really don't need another high priced slugger. Plus I think the reason why the Yankees are saying they will only give out a one year deal to FA first basemen (see Shea Hillenbrand) is because they plan to go after Mark Texiera next year. And sure Texiera could be a high priced slugger as well, but he is the total package (switch hitter, amazing fielder, doesn't strike out as much, etc etc). So bottom line, I think the Yanks will hold out for a cheaper, perhaps in-house (Andy Phillips redux?) option. Unless the M's are giving Sexson away.

First In Person Look at SU Basketball

2006-12-06T19:02:00.000-05:00

Got to attend Syracuse's game vs Oklahoma St. on Tuesday night. Although SU lost, still seems like a team with plenty of potential. Paul Harris, while having a disappointing game overall, is an absolute beast down low for a guard. When it was crunch time, he was on every loose ball. That said, his jump shot is poor and it seems that the entire team is still trying to figure out how to survive post-GMac. Harris simply does not stretch the defense the same way. Hopefully SU will improve as they learn how to complement each other.

Josh Wright really hurts the Orange at the point. He was lightning quick and has a first step that can get around most anyone. However, he has no court vision and no finishing ability. So that first step does him no good. Countless times Harris, Nichols, and company would be wide open as Wright drove the lane merely to lose the ball. Harris also kept calling for the ball in the backcourt and would take it up the court whenever he could, despite Wright's presence. You definately get the feeling that the team does not trust Wright. Harris and Devendorf will probably be the crunch time backcourt by years end.

Should be an interesting team. And they have the best recruiting class in the country coming next year.

Yanks Get Igawa

2006-11-29T13:31:00.000-05:00

The Yanks have won the right to negotiate with Kei Igawa, a lefty from Japan. He was twice the league strikeout champ ('02 and '04) and throws a "sneaky" 88-92mph fastball, an above-average change, and some breaking stuff. The 26 million dollar posting fee seems a bit high. Especially when you consider that Cashman would barely go over 30 for Matsuzaka (and when Cashman found out his bid for Matsuzaka lost, he said he was relieved).

Reportedly, Igawa will sign a 4 year deal for around 16 million, which is a bargain in this market. Remember, the 26 million dollar posting fee does not count towards the luxury tax. So Igawa will in the end most likely cost the Yankees less than it would to sign Lilly, Suppan, Meche, etc. This is one case of the Yankees going for the unknown commodity over the known. This makes sense to me- what is "known" about the current free agent pitchers is that they're not very good.

At the same time, this could potentially be a case of the Yankees overspending to make a splash in the Japanese market, in an attempt to keep up with the Red Sox. However, that wouldn't seem to comply with Cashman's new business model. At any rate, our current rotation projects like this:

1- Wang
2- Mussina
3- Randy Johnson
4- Igawa
5- Pavano/Proctor

Clearly, the Yankees did not want to start the season relying on both Pavano AND Proctor as starters. Of course, the Yanks could still get involved in Meche/Lilly/Pettite negotiations, as you can never have too many starters.

At the end of the day, I have to trust the Yankee scouts. Igawa held an MLB All-Star team to 2 runs over 6 innings (though he did walk 6). That's not bad and was following a 6 week layoff. His website calls him Iron Nerves and it's been said that he's a tough competitor which should help in the Bronx. And you know what else? He's not Jeff Suppan. I watched him pitch in the AL East for Boston. I know he sucks.

More On Jeter

2006-11-27T21:28:00.005-05:00

The common argument for Morneau as MVP (and the one espoused by Buster Olney, who I generally agree with) is that Morneau was more irreplacable than Jeter and others. Without Morneau the Twins would have collapsed and failed to make the playoffs while if Jeter was absent from the Yankee lineup, they still would have cruised to a division title anyways. This seems simply impossible to me. Jeter led the AL in Runs Created and VORP (Value Over Replace Player). Simply put- no player had a greater impact on the amount of runs their team scored and allowed. You can't simply say that A-Rod and the rest would have just "moved up" the lineup and replaced Jeter. They still would have created roughly the same amount of runs as they did. It is true the Yankees probably would have the resources to literally find a better replacement for a player than the Twins. But should that matter for MVP voting?